Daily Broad Market Recap – November 4, 2024

Traders remained mostly on the sidelines on Monday, as traders priced in uncertainty over the US election and high-profile calendar events this week.

However, crude oil got a small boost from OPEC+ delaying the plan to increase production, while Bitcoin, stocks and the US dollar unraveled some of the “Trump trade” moves.

Titles:

• During the weekend, OPEC+ members agreed to postpone the production increase In one month
• The unraveling of Trump’s Wall Street trade After an opinion poll reduced his chances in the elections
• The Australian inflation index rose from 0.1% month on month to 0.3% in October
• The final HCOB France Manufacturing PMI was confirmed at 44.5 as expected in October
• HCOB Germany final manufacturing PMI was revised higher from 42.6 to 43.0 (42.6 expected) in October
• The final Eurozone HCOB manufacturing PMI was revised higher from 45.9 to 46.0 in October; Job losses remained near a 49-month high in September. Production prices fell by the most in six months
• Eurozone investor confidence improved from -13.8 to -12.8 in November; “It is not possible to extract a positive transformation scenario from this data.”
• US factory orders In September 2024: -0.5% mo/m (-0.5% mo/m forecast; -0.8% mo/m previous)

Broad market price movement:

Major assets remained within wide ranges for most of the day, as the lack of new catalysts and uncertainty over expected events this week kept traders largely on the sidelines.

WTI rose above $70.00, to $71.70, after OPEC+ members postponed a planned production increase for at least another month. Rising tensions over the weekend, with Iran issuing threats against Israel, may have further fueled the rise in oil prices.

Meanwhile, a weekend poll showed a close race between US presidential contenders Trump and Harris, leading to some profit-taking on “Trump deals.” European and US stocks fell, Bitcoin fell to new November lows below $68,000, and spot gold remained silent below $2,750.

US 10-year Treasury yields also fell, hovering around 4.30%, as election uncertainty and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut later this week pressured bond yields.

Forex market behavior: US dollar against major currencies:

Overlay of the US dollar against major currencies Chart by TradingView

The US dollar fell and started Monday on a weak note after weekend polls reflected a tighter presidential race.

The US dollar saw fresh downward pressure at the start of the European session but also rose after the US factory orders report for September came in line with market estimates.

The rally in the US session saw the dollar rise slightly against its “riskier” counterparts such as the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, British pound and euro, but also fell against the Japanese yen, Swiss franc and Canadian dollar.

Potential catalysts coming on the economic calendar:

• The unemployment rate in Switzerland is at 6:45 am GMT
• The French government budget is at 7:45 am GMT
• French industrial production at 7:45 am GMT
• Spain’s unemployment rate changed at 8:00 AM GMT
• Final UK Services PMI at 9:30am GMT
• Presidential and congressional elections in the United States
• Canada Trade Balance at 1:30 PM GMT
• US Trade Balance at 1:30 PM GMT
• US ISM Services PMI at 3:00 PM GMT
• New Zealand quarterly employment data at 9:45pm GMT
• Bank of Japan meeting minutes at 11:50 PM GMT

All eyes will be on the US presidential election, which could limit volatility or cause erratic price movement among major assets as headlines stream in. While the world waits for the results, high-profile reports such as the US ISM Services PMI and Canadian trade data are being released. It may cause price fluctuations of the selected currency.

In Europe, intermediate reports such as the unemployment rate in Switzerland and the services PMI in the UK can influence the price movement of European currencies such as the British pound and the Swiss franc as well as overall risk sentiment.

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