Drought in Brazil, Vietnam highlight climate change’s impact on coffee: experts

Article Content

Climate change is exacerbating extreme weather conditions in the world’s major coffee-producing countries, putting future crops at risk and putting pressure on global prices.

“Coffee is the canary in the coal mine when it comes to climate change and its impact on agriculture,” said Elizabeth Shapiro Garza, assistant professor of environmental policy and management at Duke University.

Article Content

“If you like a cup of coffee in the morning, climate change will certainly affect the quality, availability and price of that cup of coffee.”

Brazil and Vietnam, the world’s two largest coffee producers, are currently suffering from drought.

Brazil’s drought is the worst the country has seen in more than 70 years. The country is also suffering from forest fires.

Coffee is a particularly fickle plant, susceptible to heat and seasonal changes, Shapiro-Garza said, adding that the coffee drying process can also be negatively affected by extreme weather.

Weather-related supply shortages in both countries are expected to push global coffee prices higher, according to a recent report by the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics at the University of Sao Paulo.

“We are seeing quite dramatic changes in what we would call traditional natural weather patterns, and that has dramatic implications for the expected supply of coffee in the upcoming harvest season,” said Sven Anders, a professor and agricultural economist at the University of Alberta.

Article Content

Article Content

Research has shown that recent heat waves, droughts and wildfires in countries such as Brazil and Vietnam have been exacerbated by climate change.

Amid all the factors affecting supply, demand for coffee continues to grow, putting additional pressure on the industry, Anders said.

Today’s Canadian coffee drinkers may not realize that the price of their morning cup of joe is at risk. Over the past year, the average retail price of roasted or ground coffee hasn’t risen much, according to Statistics Canada — about 1.6%.

However, over four years, the increase is much sharper: 23.2 percent between July 2020 and July 2024.

Coffee futures prices — a way to gauge commodity prices based on futures contracts — have been rising, suggesting that prices could rise further as the industry anticipates tighter supply in the future, Anders said. The fact that Brazil and Vietnam are facing major weather events at the same time is likely to add to the pressure, he added.

Efforts to mitigate the impact of climate change on coffee include breeding different, more resilient trees, Shapiro-Garza said. For example, she said, work is underway to make coffee more resistant to the fungus “coffee rust,” which has become a much bigger problem as it spreads more in hotter weather.

Article Content

There are other ways to make coffee farms more resilient, Anders said, including diversifying crops and planting shade trees for protection.

But it’s not just the crop that’s increasingly at risk – it’s the farmers themselves, many of whom run small, family-based operations.

“Many farmers have stopped growing coffee because it is too volatile for them,” Anders said.

Shapiro-Garza said more needs to be done to support coffee farmers so they can adapt to climate change and be less vulnerable to shocks in the system. This would not only help address price and supply volatility, but would also reduce the risk of farmers abandoning their livelihoods in search of something more stable, she added.

Consumers should expect a coffee price shock in the near term, especially from smaller companies that are less able to afford higher costs, Anders said – but in the longer term he expects prices to rise across the board.

“This won’t go away.”

—With files from The Associated Press

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 25, 2024.

Article Content