Amid doubts about the accuracy of polls and betting markets for predicting the presidential election, another set of data could offer some new insights.
Tens of thousands of Americans have already cast their ballots as both parties push for early voting. In fact, Republicans have shattered early voting records in some states after rejecting it in previous cycles.
While the candidates chosen by early voters are not yet known, data on who cast their ballots provides clues about the election. According to NBC News analysisPennsylvania saw a surge in the number of new Democratic women, while Arizona saw a surge in the number of Republican men.
In the Keystone State, crucial to Kamala Harris’ hopes of winning, 33,874 Democrats who did not vote in 2020 cast ballots early between October 1 and 28. For new male Democrats, the total was 21,292.
These outnumber Republicans who voted early and turned out in 2020, with 16,334 women and 16,679 men.
To be sure, not all Democrats will choose Harris, and not all Republicans will choose Donald Trump. In addition, the number of new voters who are not registered with either party is about 8,000 for both men and women, a potential demographic.
But NBC indicates that the total number of new voters in Pennsylvania who cast early ballots already exceeds 100,000, which exceeds Joe Biden’s margin of victory in that state in 2020, when he defeated Trump by 80,555 votes.
It’s possible that pop star Taylor Swift, who grew up in Pennsylvania, played a role in the influx of new female voters. After she endorsed Harris in September, it sparked a nationwide rush to register to vote.
Meanwhile, in Arizona, Republican men led the way among new early voters. Between October 15 and 28, that demographic cast 19,901 votes, according to NBC. For Republican women, the number was 16,515. For Democratic men and women, the totals were 10,487 and 13,533, respectively.
But the number of new early voters who did not belong to either party was much larger than in Pennsylvania, creating more uncertainty about the final outcome in Arizona. Male and female Arizonans belonging to this group cast 15,899 and 14,536 votes, respectively.
Like Pennsylvania, the total number of new early voters in Arizona — nearly 91,000 — far exceeds Biden’s razor-thin margin of victory in 2020 of just 10,457.
A key part of the Trump campaign’s strategy is to mobilize low-propensity voters, that is, those who do not often participate in elections. This has also translated to some Concern among Republican activists Who don’t see a large number of itinerants going door to door. By contrast, the Harris campaign has used a more traditional ground game with offices covering battleground states and an army of paid staff and volunteers.
Polls remain close in both states. According to the average of 538Harris and Trump are tied in Pennsylvania with 48% each, while Trump leads in Arizona with 48.8% versus 46.7%.
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