The daily chart is the main focus of EUR/USD at the moment:
Daily chart of EUR/USD
The pair is falling back below the 1.0800 level currently, with the dollar remaining in control amid higher returns this week. The latter also affects the overall risk sentiment, doubling the dollar's advantage across the board.
It should be noted that we are seeing the EUR/USD pair falling below the 100-day moving average (red line) at 1.0808. This is the first major hurdle that sellers look to get over.
But just below that, there are some other key support levels nearby. The 200-day moving average (blue line) is at 1.0786, which is another large level that is currently in play. This will work in conjunction with the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0782 to provide buyers with a technical place they can rely on and try to stay in the game.
Otherwise, a strong break below that area would see sellers regain more control. This is likely to lead to the pair falling next, before the European Central Bank meeting decision next week and the US jobs report.
There won't be a lot of support levels to choose from on the way down from there. The 50.0 Fibonacci retracement level comes next at 1.0748 before the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0713. But I think sellers might be more interested in a move towards the 1.0700 level.
However, keep in mind that we also have to deal with end-of-month flows this week. The Barclays model does not seem to be working yet. But the strong dollar inflows we are seeing may or may not translate to the same level next week.
