EUR/USD and EUR/GBP trading rates, charts and analysis
- EUR/USD returned above 1.0900 on the back of US dollar weakness.
- Eurozone data releases are weak on the ground next week.
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The Euro is rising against the US Dollar and is back above 1.0900 after the latest US Jobs Report (NFP) missed expectations. However, wages data remained strong, leaving the US dollar mixed with a slight decline after the release.
June Jobs Report: Mixed with Non-Farm Payrolls estimates but unemployment rate and hourly earnings are improving
The economic calendar will be somewhat blank next week with the German Inflation Final Release (June) and the Eurozone and German ZEW Release (July) being the highlights.
See all market-moving events and economic data releases in real time DailyFX calendar
Currency markets have been fairly quiet this week, not helped by the US Independence Day holiday on Tuesday with low volumes and little volatility. EUR/USD, the most traded pair in the foreign exchange market, has been trading in a 100-point range this week, and with the current 14-day ATR at 69 points, it will be very difficult to trade this range. Short term support appears on both sides of 1.0835, while initial resistance holds around 1.0960.
EUR/USD daily price chart – July 7, 2023
Chart via TradingView
|
change in |
Longs |
Shorts |
Hey |
| Daily | -16% | 19% | 2% |
| weekly | -4% | 4% | 1% |
Retail sentiment is mixed
Retail trader data shows that 44.15% of traders hold net long positions with the short-to-long ratio at 1.27 to 1, while the number of long-traders is down 20.29% from yesterday and 14.70% lower from last week. Traders’ net short positions are 11.76% higher than yesterday and 10.56% higher than last week.
We usually take a view contrarian to crowd sentiment, and the fact that traders are short of the position suggests that EUR/USD prices could continue to rise. Traders are getting tougher than yesterday and last week, giving us the mix of current sentiment and recent changes EUR/USD has the strongest bullish contrarian trading bias.
The Euro’s struggle against the British Pound continues with EUR/GBP testing a multi-month low again yesterday. The British Pound remains supported by rising British short-term bond yields as expectations continue to grow that the Bank of England will need to aggressively raise interest rates if it wants to keep inflation under control. British two-year bond yields hit 5.66% Thursday, the highest level in more than 15 years. Daily EUR/GBP remains biased to the downside with little near-term support if 0.85187 is broken convincingly. With interest rate expectations intact, a break of the June high of 0.8658 is unlikely in the short to medium term.
EUR/GBP daily price chart – July 7, 2023
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