Events to Look Out For Next Week

Markets

By Investor Empires On Mar 26, 2023

Even if central banking chaos is out of the way for now, there is a heavy agenda for central bank rhetoric ahead. So far, the market remains concerned about the stability of the financial system and is skeptical about the outlook for growth and demand as central banks remain focused on combating inflation. Friday is the most important day of the week with the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation i.e. personal consumption expenditures.

Mon – 27 He walks 2023

German IFO (EUR, 08:00 GMT).) German Ifo Business Confidence is expected to decline slightly to 90.5 in March after 91.1.
Bank of England Governor Bailey’s speech (GBP, 17:00 GMT)

Tue – 28 He walks 2023

Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 00:30) Retail sales for February are expected to show a slight growth of 0.4% qoq, significantly lower than the previous reading of 1.9% qoq in January.
Bank of England Governor Bailey’s speech (GBP, 08:45 GMT)
CB Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 14:00) Consumer confidence in March is expected to decline to 105.0 from 102.9. US Consumer Confidence faltered to 102.9 in February, much weaker than expected. It is -3.1 points down from a revised 106.0 (was 107.1) in January. This is the lowest since November and was at 105.7 a year ago.

Wed – 29 March 2023

CPI (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Australian inflation data in February is expected to confirm at 7.4% y/y.
Pending Home Sales (USD, 14:00 GMT) – Pending home sales are expected to grow 1.0% in February after rebounding to 8.1% in January following a 1.1% increase in December.
Crude Oil Inventories and Cushing Crude Oil Inventories (USOIL, GMT 14:30)

Thursday – March 30th 2023

Inflation letter from the Bank of England (GBP, GMT N/A)
Harmonized Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 12:00) – German primary inflation for March is expected to pick up at 7.3% yoy from 8.7% yoy.
GDP (USD, 12:30 GMT) – Final Q4 GDP growth should show an increase in growth to 2.8% from 2.7%, with increases of $12 billion for non-residential construction, $4 billion for consumption, $1 billion for general construction, but increases of -$6 billion. For business stocks, -$5 billion for net exports and -$1 billion for residential investment. The revised data would still depict a quarter with a huge inventory build, despite a significant decline in imports, leaving little room for inventories to pick up growth in 2023. We saw moderate consumption growth and a deterioration in all components of fixed investment, including the large residential investment hit by Mortgage rates rose sharply to a 21-year high in October.
Conservative Board Member Maechler Speech (CHF, GMT 16:00)
Speech by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen (USD, 19:45 GMT)

Fri – 31 March 2023

BMI manufacturing (CNYGMT 01:30) The NBS Manufacturing PMI is expected to decline to 50.5 in March from 52.6.
GDP (GBP, GMT 06:00) – The economy is still expected to contract by -0.4% in the first quarter, before stabilizing and starting to pick up in the second half of the year, and GDP is now expected to expand by 0.2% in 2023. Bank of England minutes showed that bank staff They expect GDP to rise slightly in the second quarter, compared to the -0.4% decline expected in February.
CPI and Unemployment Data (EUR, GMT 07:55) The unemployment rate in the Eurozone was unchanged in February at 6.7% month-on-month, while primary inflation for March is expected to pick up to 7.2% year-on-year from 8.5% year-on-year.
GDP (Canadian dollars, 12:30 GMT) – Canadian GDP results for January are expected to slow to contraction at a monthly rate of -0.1%.
Core PCE Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – Personal income for the month of February is expected to have increased by 0.3% after rising by 0.6% in January. Consumers no longer spend more than they earn, as “stimulus funds” appear to have depleted around mid-2022. The rate is still well below the pre-pandemic level of 8.7% in the fourth quarter of 2019.
Michigan Consumer Confidence (USD, 14:00 GMT) Michigan’s final report is expected to reveal no revision in the initial key decline for March to 63.4 from a 13-month high of 67.0. Confidence polls generally showed an update from mid-2022 lows, though all measures have deteriorated sharply from mid-2021 peaks. Michigan and IBD/TIPP sentiment fluctuate around historically weak levels, while the Conference Board gauge remains resilient. All surveys are facing headwinds from rising mortgage rates, lingering recession fears, and now bank failures.

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Andrea Pechedy

Market analyst

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