It seems that advanced remote attackPagers used by hundreds of Hezbollah members exploded almost simultaneously in Lebanon and Syria on Tuesday. At least nine people killed – including an 8-year-old girl – and thousands more injured.
The Iran-backed militant group has accused Israel of being behind the deadly blasts, which targeted a large number of people and showed signs of being a long-planned operation. It remains largely unclear how the attack was carried out and investigators did not immediately say how the pagers were detonated. The Israeli military declined to comment.
Here’s what we know so far.
Why were pagers used in the attack?
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has warned party members against carrying cell phones, saying Israel could use them to track the group’s movements. As a result, the party uses pagers to communicate.
A Hezbollah official told The Associated Press that the explosive devices were a new brand that the group had not used before. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the press, did not identify the brand or the supplier.
Smartphones carry a higher risk of interception than simpler pager technology, explains Nicholas Rees, an assistant professor at the Center for Global Affairs at New York University’s School of Professional Studies.
Such attacks will also force Hezbollah to change its communications strategies, said Reiss, a former intelligence officer, adding that survivors of Tuesday’s explosions would likely get rid of “not only their pagers, but also their phones, and leave behind their tablets or other electronic devices.”
How could sabotage cause these devices to explode?
While investigators have so far revealed few details, multiple theories emerged Tuesday about how the attack was carried out. Several experts who spoke to The Associated Press suggested the explosions were likely the result of a supply chain malfunction.
Very small explosive devices may have been installed in the communications devices before they were delivered to Hezbollah, and then triggered remotely at the same time, perhaps using a radio signal.
By the time of the attack, “the battery was probably half explosive and half actual battery,” said Carlos Perez, director of security intelligence at TrustedSec.
A former British Army bomb disposal officer explained that an IED consists of five main components: a container, a battery, a detonator, a detonator and an explosive charge.
“The pager actually has three of these devices,” explained the former officer, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he now works as a consultant with clients in the Middle East. “All you have to do is add the detonator and the charge.”
After security camera footage emerged on social media Tuesday purporting to show a pager exploding on a man’s hip in a Lebanese market, two munitions experts also said the blast appeared to be the result of a small explosive device.
“Looking at the video, the size of the explosion is similar to that caused by an electric detonator alone or a detonator containing a very small, high-explosive charge,” said Sean Moorhouse, a former British Army officer and explosive ordnance disposal expert.
This suggests a government entity was involved, Morehouse said. Israel’s foreign intelligence agency, Mossad, is the most obvious suspect for having the resources to carry out such an attack, he added.
NR Jenzen-Jones, a military weapons expert and director of the Australian Armament Research Service, agreed that the scale and sophistication of the attack “likely points to a state actor,” and that Israel has been accused of carrying out such operations in the past. Last year, the Associated Press reported that Iran had accused Israel of trying to Sabotaging its ballistic missile program with defective foreign parts that could explodedestroying or damaging weapons before they are used.
How long did this process take?
Planning an attack of this magnitude would take a long time. The exact details are still unknown, but experts who spoke to The Associated Press said it could take anywhere from several months to two years.
The sophistication of the attack suggests that whoever was behind it had been gathering intelligence for a long time, Reese explained. An attack of this magnitude required building the relationships needed to gain physical access to the pagers before they were sold; developing the technology that would be embedded in the devices; and developing sources who could confirm that the targets were carrying the pagers.
The hijacked pagers likely appeared normal to their users for some time before the attack. Elijah J. Magnier, a veteran Brussels-based analyst and senior political risk analyst with more than 37 years of experience in the region, said he had conversations with Hezbollah members and survivors of Tuesday’s pager attack. He said the pagers had been purchased more than six months ago.
“The pagers had been working perfectly for six months,” Magnier said, adding that the cause of the explosion appeared to be an error message sent to all the devices.
Based on his conversations with Hezbollah members, Magnier also said that several of the pagers had not been triggered, allowing the group to examine them. He said they concluded that between 3 and 5 grams of highly explosive material had been hidden or buried in electrical circuits.
What else could have happened?
Another possibility is that malware was introduced into the pagers’ operating system – somehow causing the device’s batteries to overload at a specific time, causing them to catch fire.
According to a Hezbollah official and Lebanese security officials, the pagers began heating up and then exploded in the pockets or hands of those carrying them on Tuesday afternoon.
The Hezbollah official said that these devices are powered by lithium-ion batteries, claiming that the devices exploded as a result of being targeted by an Israeli “security operation,” without going into details.
When lithium-ion batteries overheat, they can smoke, melt, and even catch fire. Rechargeable lithium batteries are used in consumer products ranging from cell phones and laptops to electric cars. Lithium batteries can burn at temperatures as high as 590 degrees Celsius (1,100 degrees Fahrenheit).
However, Morehouse and others noted that the photos and videos seen Tuesday more closely resembled the detonation of a small explosive charge, not a hot battery.
“A lithium-ion battery fire is different, but I’ve never seen a battery explode like that,” said Alex Beltsas, an arms expert at the Atlantic Council. “It looks like a small explosive charge.”
Among those pointing to the possibility of a supply chain attack is Jenzen Jones, who adds that “such a large-scale operation also raises questions about targeting” – stressing the number of casualties and the massive impact reported so far.
“How can the party detonating the IED be sure that the target’s child, for example, is not playing with the pager while it is operating?” he said.
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