(Reuters) – A deadly missile strike on the occupied Golan Heights has added to fears that Israel and the Iranian-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah could slide into all-out war – something both have previously indicated they want to avoid but also said they are prepared for.
Israel said on Sunday it would hit Hezbollah hard after accusing the group of killing 12 children and teenagers in a rocket attack on a soccer field in the occupied Golan Heights. Hezbollah denied any responsibility for the attack in Majdal Shams, the deadliest in Israel or Israeli-annexed territory since a Hamas attack on Oct. 7 sparked the war in Gaza.
This is the background to the hostility between Israel and Hezbollah:
Why do they fight?
Hezbollah began exchanging fire with Israel on October 8, a day after the Palestinian Hamas movement attacked towns in southern Israel, sparking the Gaza War.
Hezbollah, an ally of Hamas, says its attacks are aimed at supporting Palestinians under Israeli bombardment in Gaza.
The Gaza war has drawn in Iranian-backed militants from across the region. Hezbollah is widely seen as the most powerful member of the Iranian-backed network known as the Axis of Resistance.
Hezbollah has repeatedly said it will not stop its attacks on Israel unless a ceasefire in Gaza goes into effect.
Although the conflict is linked to Gaza, it has its own dynamics.
Israel and Hezbollah have fought many wars.
The last one was in 2006.
Israel has long viewed Hezbollah as the greatest threat on its borders, and has been deeply concerned about its growing arsenal and the foothold it has established in Syria.
Hezbollah’s ideology is largely defined by its conflict with Israel. It was founded by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard in 1982 to fight Israeli forces that invaded Lebanon that year, and it waged years of guerrilla warfare that led Israel to withdraw from southern Lebanon in 2000.
Hezbollah considers Israel an illegitimate state established on occupied Palestinian territories, and wants it to disappear.
What is the impact so far?
The current conflict has already affected both sides.
Tens of thousands of people have been forced to flee their homes on both sides of the border. Israeli air strikes have also hit areas where Hezbollah is active in southern Lebanon, and the Bekaa Valley near the Syrian border.
Israel has also launched attacks elsewhere from time to time, most notably killing a senior Hamas commander in Beirut on January 2.
The Israeli strikes have killed about 350 Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon and more than 100 civilians, including medics, children and journalists, according to security and medical sources and a Reuters tally of death notices issued by Hezbollah.
The Israeli military said after Saturday’s attack that the number of civilians killed in Hezbollah attacks had risen to 23 since October, along with at least 17 soldiers. Hezbollah denied responsibility for Saturday’s attack.
In Israel, the exodus of so many Israelis is a major political issue. Officials had hoped they would be able to return home for the start of the school year on September 1, but that looks increasingly unlikely as the standoff continues.
How much worse could it get?
Many. Despite the ferocity of these hostilities, this confrontation remains relatively limited.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned last December that Beirut would turn “into Gaza” if Hezbollah started a full-scale war.
Hezbollah had previously indicated that it was not seeking to expand the conflict, while also saying that it was prepared to fight any war imposed on it, warning that it had only used a small part of its capabilities so far.
Hezbollah’s deputy secretary-general, Sheikh Naim Qassem, said in an interview with Al Jazeera last June that any move by Israel to expand the conflict would be met with “destruction, destruction and displacement” in Israel.
Past wars have caused great damage.
In 2006, Israeli strikes destroyed large swaths of the Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs of Beirut, destroyed Beirut’s airport, and damaged roads, bridges, and other infrastructure. Nearly a million people in Lebanon fled their homes.
In Israel, the effects included 300,000 people fleeing their homes to escape Hezbollah missiles, and the destruction of about 2,000 homes.
Hezbollah has a much larger arsenal of weapons than it did in 2006, including missiles it says are capable of hitting all of Israel.
Hamas has shown progress in its weapons since October, shooting down Israeli drones, launching its own explosive drones into Israel, and firing more advanced guided missiles.
Israeli forces have invaded Lebanon several times in the past, reaching Beirut in a 1982 invasion aimed at crushing Palestinian rebels based in Lebanon.
Can escalation be avoided?
Much will depend on what happens in Gaza, where efforts to agree a ceasefire and return Israeli hostages have stalled. A ceasefire there could help bring about a rapid reduction in tensions in southern Lebanon.
The United States, which considers Hezbollah a terrorist organization, has been at the heart of diplomatic efforts to ease the conflict.
Hezbollah has expressed its willingness to eventually accept a deal that benefits Lebanon, but has said there will be no discussions until Israel stops its offensive in Gaza.
Israel has also said it prefers a diplomatic settlement that would restore security in the north, but it also says it is prepared to launch a military offensive to achieve the same goal.
It was the American official at the heart of the diplomatic contacts, Amos Hochstein, who brokered an unlikely diplomatic agreement between Lebanon and Israel in 2022 over their disputed maritime border.
Hochstein said on May 30 that he did not expect peace between Hezbollah and Israel, but that a set of understandings could remove some of the momentum from the conflict and establish a recognized border between Lebanon and Israel.
A French proposal presented to Beirut in February included the withdrawal of elite Hezbollah fighters 10 kilometers (6 miles) from the border and negotiations aimed at settling disputes over the land border.
