Global Macro Manager at Fidelity Investments, Jurian Timmer, continues to provide insightful frameworks for understanding Bitcoin’s valuation and growth. In a Latest updateTimmer shared his perspective on Bitcoin adoption and value trajectories, illustrated through detailed charts that reflect historical trends and hypothetical scenarios.
Timmer’s models aim to simplify Bitcoin’s complex growth dynamics, bridging the gap between network adoption and valuation. “Although supply is known, demand is not,” he said, stressing the crucial role of adoption curves and macroeconomic variables such as real interest rates and monetary policy.
Adoption curves: Slow but consistent growth
Despite the slowdown in Bitcoin network growth, according to the number of wallets with non-zero balance, Timmer noted that the trend remains in line with the steep power curve shown in his updated adoption chart. While the Internet adoption curve has a gentler slope, Bitcoin’s adoption path is still steeper, demonstrating its rapid but mature growth.
Importantly, Timmer highlighted a major limitation in measuring portfolio growth: the low number of wallets/addresses due to Bitcoin ETFs, which consolidate holdings into a small number of portfolios. “It is very likely that the number of wallets/addresses is an underestimate,” he said, noting that ETFs obscure the broader distribution of Bitcoin adoption.
Monetary policy meets adoption dynamics
Building on his previous models, Timmer added a new layer to his evaluation framework by incorporating money supply growth along with real interest rates. The updated charts compare two hypothetical Bitcoin valuation paths: one driven by adoption curves and real prices, and the other including monetary inflation as a factor.
“Again, these are not projections, but merely attempts to visualize the use case based on adoption, real prices, and monetary inflation,” Timmer explained. This multi-layered approach emphasizes how external macroeconomic forces, such as monetary policy, can influence Bitcoin adoption and valuation.
Why is this important?
Timmer’s updated models reinforce Bitcoin’s position as a mature financial asset. By combining historical S-curves, Metcalfe’s Law, and macroeconomic factors, it provides a comprehensive view of Bitcoin’s unique combination of network utility and monetary features. His work highlights the importance of adoption in boosting Bitcoin’s value, while also showing how real-world monetary conditions can shape its future.
For Bitcoin supporters and skeptics alike, Timmer’s insights serve as a valuable framework for understanding the dual nature of the asset as a network and a form of money. The inclusion of monetary inflation in his models further underscores Bitcoin’s potential as a hedge against the decline in the value of fiat currency.
The way forward
As Bitcoin continues to evolve, Timmer models provide an important lens to track its development. Whether it’s flattening the adoption curve or the interplay between monetary policy and valuation, his analysis underscores the growing complexity of the asset — and its enduring importance in the financial world.
For investors, analysts, and enthusiasts, these insights are a reminder of Bitcoin’s transformative potential, even as its growth curve matures.
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