The U.S. chief economist at Societe Generale is not expecting Federal Reserve Chair Powell to push back too hard against expectations of 100bp or so of rate cuts in 2024 from the FOMC.
- “I just don’t see the Fed pushing back super-hard. It will be a mild pushback”
He isn’t expecting a March rate cut though, saying the news on the economy would have to be “jarring” to get such a quick cut.
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The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meet on December 12 – 13. The widely shared consensus view is for the Committee to hold Fed Funds at the 5.25 – 5.50% range.
This will be the third consecutive meeting of ‘on hold’. the last rate hike was back in July.
Other expectations:
- Fed’s policy statement will continue to lean hawkish, once again mentioning the possibility for future tightening.
- The revised “dot-plot” in the Statement of Economic Projections (SEP) will show 50 basis points of cuts in 2024 same as in September’s SEP).
- New forecasts will persist in projecting slower economic growth in 2024 and no recession
- Powell will once again say that the Fed might have to hike interest rates again if inflation re-accelerates, and that its “premature” to talk about rate cuts
Timings:
- FOMC statement is due at 2.00 pm US Eastern time on Wednesday 13th
- Powell’s press conference follows at 2:30 p.m.
Earlier:
- Bank of America cautions investors on overly optimistic rate cut predictions
- Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) preview and outlook further ahead
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
