Live Markets, Charts & Financial News

French whale betting on Trump is only doing it for the money

1

A French trader who bet $30 million on betting site Polymarket on Donald Trump winning the presidential election said he had no political motive for doing so.

In an interview with the Wall Street Journalthe alleged whale referred to himself as “Theo” and said he placed his bets on Trump for one reason only.

“My goal is just to make money,” he added.

After questions arose about large pro-Trump trades on the platform, Polymarket reached out to the French whale behind the accounts but did not reveal his identity, saying only that he had “extensive trading experience and a background in financial services.”

A handful of the trader’s big bets were skewing the election odds in Trump’s favor. magazine It was reported last month, raising concerns of market manipulation to change voters’ perceptions of the race.

But Theo denied any such motives, telling… magazine “I have no political agenda at all,” he said in an email.

He also said he places Polymarket bets with his own money, which he said represents the majority of his liquid assets. The outlet was unable to verify whether this was true or not. A Polymarket spokesperson did not immediately respond luckRequest for comment.

Using several different accounts on Polymarket, Théo made his huge bet on Trump through a series of small transactions that he said helped prevent the price of his bets from rising so he could get a better deal.

For example, during a 10-hour period last week, a trader… Theo4 The account made more than 450 bets on Vice President Kamala Harris not winning the presidential election in amounts ranging from $5 to tens of thousands of dollars.

Polymarket has been cited over the past few months by mainstream media as an alternative to traditional polls, with some election observers arguing that prediction markets are more likely to reflect an accurate picture of the race because people are putting real money behind their bets.

However, Polymarket is not available to US users and has been It was fined by the CFTC in 2022 In order to “offer over-the-counter event-based binary options contracts.” Two separate investigations by blockchain companies also found that a significant portion of Polymarket’s trading volume can be attributed to “wash trading,” a form of market manipulation in which traders repeatedly buy and sell stocks to falsely inflate market volume and activity. luck I mentioned.

“Polymarket’s Terms of Use expressly prohibit market manipulation,” a Polymarket spokesperson previously said in a statement to luck. “We strive to provide users with the fairest analysis possible and our transparency allows the market to make the decision.”

If Theo’s bets on Trump succeed, he could double his money, taking home about $80 million, according to magazine. If Harris wins, he could lose the majority of his money, or worse, lose his entire bet.

Theo said that while he was new to betting on elections, he bet heavily on Trump because he believed mainstream polls had underestimated the Republican candidate’s odds of winning the election. He referred to opinion polls from 2016 and 2020 That fell well short of Trump’s vote total and the idea that some people didn’t want to support Trump publicly. Opinion polls from New York Times/Siena College and Reuters/Ipsos Trump and Harris are pitted against each other with days to go until Election Day.

the magazine Theo is described as a man with a “short, neatly trimmed beard”, wearing a gray Nike t-shirt, and who has a slight English accent. He said he had previously lived in the United States and traded for banks. The French whale also said that he does not want to give his full name because his friends and children do not know his enormous wealth.

While Theo was confident about Trump’s chances of winning in his interview with The Guardian magazineHe nervously admitted that political winds could change in an instant.

“A surprise can always happen,” he said.

Next event:

Join the brightest minds and boldest business leaders at the Fortune Global Forum, taking place November 11-12 in New York City. Thought-provoking sessions and informal discussions featuring Fortune 500 CEOs, former Cabinet members, global ambassadors and 7-time World Champion Tom Brady – among many others.

View the full agenda here, or request your invitation.

Comments are closed, but trackbacks and pingbacks are open.