Looking for USD-related trades ahead of Uncle Sam’s jobs data on Thursday and Friday?
I’m Gucho!
Take a look at USDCHF trading near trend support:
USD/CHF for 15 minutes Planned by TV
In case you missed it, the minutes from the FOMC meeting released yesterday showed that “almost all Fed members voted to hold off on the June rate hike, while” some “favored raising Fed rates by another 25 basis points.
Meanwhile, SNB Governing Council member Andrea Micheler said earlier today that “further rate hikes cannot be ruled out.”
The hawkish Fed’s meeting minutes did not seem to give much benefit to the dollar against the franc, as USD/CHF dropped from the 0.8990 resistance to test the 8970 support level.
Will the US Dollar Continue to Lose Pips Against the Swiss Franc?
The current prices of the USD/CHF pair are in line with the trend line support that has been in place since the beginning of the month.
Not only that, but it is also close to the S1 (.8960) Pivot Point level and the 200 SMA on the 15-minute time frame.
The cherry above the sweet setup is the stochastic chillin’ in the oversold zone of the chart while USD/CHF is almost halfway through Average daily fluctuations.
Let’s see if today’s US jobs data can make or break the USD/CHF bullish trend.
Talk about Initial Jobless Claims in the US, ADP report, Challenger job cuts, and JOLTS job applications due today will paint a picture of a weaker job market.
If the numbers are disappointing enough, traders could price in the Fed’s less hawkish monetary policy path. USD/CHF could weaken further and break below its support areas.
For now though, I’m inclined to the Fed retaining its hawkish rhetoric despite some weakness in the labor market.
USD/CHF could rebound from trend line support and revisit 8980 pivot point level if not 0.8990 former resistance or 0.9000 weekly highs.
If USD/CHF does not meet the profit targets that I am looking for, I would consider closing any positions before the actual NFP release in the US.
What about you? How do you plan to trade this setup?
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