Data linked from here:
The jobs report came out very clear, beating even the highest estimates:
(Note: If you don’t read posts like this from Giuseppe and I before important US economic releases, you will be blind)
I’ve already posted some responses:
And if you haven’t seen it, Goldman Sachs talks about its expectations for the November FOMC meeting (25 basis point rate cut):
Bottom line: Nonfarm payrolls rose by 254K in September, well above expectations. Payroll growth was revised by 17K in August to 159K and by 55K in July to 144K. The industry’s composition of job creation was stronger than last month, although the leisure, hospitality, healthcare and government sectors accounted for 70% of today’s net job gains. The Payroll Spread Index rose 5.8 points to 57.6 and is now around its pre-pandemic level. The unemployment rate fell by 17 basis points to 4.05%, reflecting an increase of 430,000 in domestic workers and no change in the labor force participation rate. Our estimate of the underlying pace of job growth based on the Salaries and Household Survey now stands at 196,000 after adjusting for the missing figure for immigration in the official statistics. Average hourly earnings rose 0.37% month-on-month in September, above expectations, and brings our estimate of the underlying pace of average hourly earnings growth to +3.9%.
We still expect a 25 basis point cut in the November and December meetings, and believe today’s report makes a 50 basis point cut in November less likely.
Image by Amnesty International
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