Housing market economist Ali Wolf is ‘watching closely to see if there’s a double-dip recession in housing’
Just days into 2023, homebuilders across the country are seeing demand soar as price-sensitive buyers seek relief from last year’s mortgage-rate shock. combination of builders Price adjustments— which were big in western markets like Salt Lake City and Boise — and strong incentives, such as mortgage rate buys, were enough to attract buyers back into the new local market.
Halfway through 2023, this new build optimization seems to be stuck. At least for now.
Objectively speaking, the housing slump in the new home space is over. Ali Wolf, chief economist at Zonda, said recently luck.
actually, New home sales In May it was up 20% year over year. Tiing the May new home sales figure to the highest monthly reading between 2010 and 2019. Leading indicators such as Housing construction trust She is also on the rise.
However, just because homeowners have survived a housing market slump, doesn’t mean they can’t slip back into it.
“The big question is, is that it? Are we back in growth mode from here? I’m not sure it’s a straight line. There are still broader economic concerns that could affect housing demand, including potential disruptions after the Fed’s restrictive policy,” Wolf asks. Fed, a significant downturn in consumer spending, or even fallout from the commercial real estate sector. We’re watching closely to see if there’s a double-dip recession in the housing sector or if demographic-fuelled demand is enough to outweigh the broader issues.”
There are two primary headwinds facing builders: affordability and history.
While builders have made improvements in affordability through a combination of price cuts and incentives, Affordability is still strained. This will happen when mortgage rates double right after a historic spike in housing price growth between 2020 and 2022. If the economy and existing inventory/resale growth weaken, builders could find themselves back in what’s called a housing slump.
The second headwind here is simply economic history. The Federal Reserve is in the midst of its fastest rate hike campaign over 40 years old. Historically speaking, anti-inflationary campaigns on the part of the Fed It usually ends in a complete recession in the United States.
Back in January, Federal Reserve Chairman Christopher Waller said there was About nine to 12 months between a Fed policy move and its impact on the broader economy. The Fed’s first hike (March 2022) 16 months ago, while the last increase was (May 2022) was only two months ago. This is why some economists are not ready to declare victory just yet.
