Prediction markets had a strong moment during the presidential election, when they proved to be more accurate than most opinion polls.
So, with many cryptocurrencies rising since Donald Trump won the election, perhaps prediction markets can accurately answer the question, “How high will Bitcoin go?”
Based on encryption PolymarketAs the so-called French whale made a huge windfall after the election, bettors have various options for Bitcoin, which is currently trading at around $91,000.
For the decade that Bitcoin’s price will reach in November, the odds are 72% that it will reach $95,000. The price with the next highest odds is $105,000 at 23%, then $110,000 at 14%.
A separate contract asking if Bitcoin will surpass $90,000 on November 22 shows odds of 60%, while another contract asking if Bitcoin will reach $100,000 on November has only a 42% chance.
on Kalshi market forecastthe contract asking how high Bitcoin will rise before 2026 shows 52% odds of $125,000 or more and 44% odds of $150,000 or more.
If prediction markets aren’t your thing, and you prefer forecasts from a more traditional Wall Street analyst, there’s Fundstrat Global Advisors co-founder Tom Lee.
Among Forecasters surveyed by Bloomberghis predictions for the stock market in 2023 turned out to be the most accurate.
As for Bitcoin, he said in March that it could reach $150,000 by the end of the year. While this seems less likely now with only a month and a half left in the year, Lee told CNBC last week that “six figures” were still possible before the end of the year with further gains in 2025 expected in 2026.
“I think now that after the halving, Bitcoin has become more important, and I think the regulatory burden is probably diminishing, and there is a lot of upside from here,” he explained.
Bitcoin is already up 32% so far in November alone, and has more than doubled this year. To reach $100,000, it would have to go up another 10%.
But there are signs that the post-election rally has stalled, with the stock market having a losing week. However, key components of the “Trump deal” are rising, such as Tesla shares, Treasury yields, and the dollar.
Meanwhile, Quinn Thompson, founder of cryptocurrency hedge fund Lekker Capital, said luck Last week, he was optimistic that Bitcoin would reach the $100,000 level soon.
“I feel good that we made it happen by the end of the year,” he said. “Very possible by the end of the month, but we’ll see.”
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