The latest JPM Global Manufacturing PMI was released on Thursday, falling below 50 in July, indicating a return to contraction.
- JPMorgan’s global manufacturing PMI fell to 49.7 in July from 50.8 in June.
- First contraction in 2024 so far, ending 6-month expansion streak
- Output growth slowed sharply, and new orders fell for the first time since January.
- The United States and China saw weaker expansions, the eurozone remained in recession, and Japan returned to contraction.
- Only 15 out of 32 countries recorded an increase in industrial production.
- Employment was broadly unchanged, with gains in the US and Japan offset by losses in the euro zone and China.
- Input costs and selling prices continued to rise, but at slower rates.
The question here is whether the global manufacturing sector has hit a roadblock at the start of the second half of 2024 or is there something more ominous?
Similar data from the US on Thursday leaned in a “doomsday” direction:
The JPMorgan Purchasing Managers’ Index showed modest growth in output and a decline in new orders, but some major economies continued to expand. But the bigger picture has weakened markedly. Watch to see if this is just a temporary setback or the start of a longer-term slowdown.
U.S. Treasury and stock prices flipped into a “bad news is bad news” reaction on Thursday. We’re not used to that after the constant backlash from investors.
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