at recent days string On X (formerly Twitter), popular on-chain analyst Checkmate provided an analysis regarding the future path of Bitcoin. Currently, the major cryptocurrency is hovering around the $60,000 level, a pivotal moment that reflects historical patterns within the Bitcoin market cycle.
What will the next six months bring for Bitcoin?
Checkmate argues that Bitcoin is being put into a “hash” phase – a term coined to describe a stagnant but volatile period. He notes that this could last for about six months, based on previous cycles, and may herald a period of parabolic growth that could last between six and twelve months. “Bitcoin history tends to be consistent, and so far, this cycle is no different,” Checkmate noted. “The song sung during the last two cycles charts approximately 6 months of consolidation ahead of us, followed by 6-12 months of equivalent progress.”
To support its analysis, Checkmate points to April 2021 as an important high point for Bitcoin “for many good reasons,” noting that despite the significant monthly decline of more than $8,250 in April, such moves are typical and often indicate healthy corrections in the market. “It is a monthly decline of -11.2%, which is very common during uptrends, and corrections are healthy and necessary,” he said, strengthening his confidence in Bitcoin’s resilience and potential for recovery.
Further statistical support comes from historical data focusing exclusively on Bitcoin halving years (2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024), which Checkmate used to show that such monthly corrections are not outliers, but rather common events within digital assets' cyclical trends. . The end of each year after the halving has shown historically strong performance, supporting the idea that the current price point could be a precursor to significant gains.
Sell in May and leave?
Checkmate also retweeted a post from Charles Edwards. Founder of Capriole Investments Comment On the unprecedented uptrend in the market, which means that a deeper correction is expected.
“This is starting to get ridiculous. Bitcoin has not seen performance like this since its inception. We are now one day away from the 2011 record for days without a significant decline (over 25%). If you are not prepared to accept some downside in… This asset class, it shouldn't be here. “Especially now,” Edwards said. His comments highlight the unusual lack of severe downturns in the market, suggesting that investors should prepare for potential volatility.”
In another post on X, Edwards added a note of caution to the optimistic outlook. “Sell in May and go away,” he advised. “This looks like a spread to me. As long as we are trading below $61.5K, scenario (1) is technically the most likely. A strong retracement of $61.5K would give Some hopes for the bulls in scenario (2) Flow will also be beneficial for the continuation of the bull market, and the sooner we get it, the better the long opportunities.
This perspective suggests that a strategic pullback may be wise in the short term, implying that current market conditions may be more bearish than they appear and that a significant correction could boost the market's long-term prospects.
At press time, Bitcoin had fallen to $57,691.
Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
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