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Implied odds of a Fed pause in November rise to 22% after Bostic. Euro hits two-month low

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The US dollar jumped after Atlanta Fed President Rafael Bostic signaled he was open to a pause in November if data supports it.

“I’m completely comfortable skipping a meeting if the data suggests that’s appropriate,” he told The New York Times. Wall Street Journal.

With this, the implied odds of the Fed pausing rose to 22% from 7% after today’s CPI and unemployment claims data. And that wasn’t just a throwaway line because he specifically mentioned today’s CPI report.

“This volatility to me is consistent with the possibility that we should pause in November. I’m certainly open to that,” Bostic said. “I think we have the ability to be patient and wait and let things play out a little longer… There are elements in today’s report that I think validate that view.

The dollar rose broadly on the comments and stocks were sold off. EUR/USD is trading at its worst levels of the day, down 40 pips. It is also at its lowest level in two months.

Daily chart of the EUR/USD pair

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