(Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump was shot in the ear during a campaign rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday in what authorities said was being treated as an assassination attempt.
Trump’s campaign later said he was in “good condition” and appeared to have suffered no serious injuries other than a cut to his upper right ear.
Here are the reactions of investors and analysts to the shooting:
John Chambers, former Chairman of the Sovereign Rating Committee,
Standard & Poor’s, New York:
“Like everyone else, I am appalled by the attempted assassination of former President Trump.
This could be a harbinger of a return to political violence, such as that witnessed in the United States in the 1960s.
Such an outcome would be dire, but given the strength of US institutions, I don’t think it would have an impact on credit ratings.”
Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin:
“It was horrifying to watch the videos. From a purely markets perspective, the question is – what do these videos do to the chances of one candidate winning over the other? Will they throw Trump off the game, since such rallies are a key part of his campaign strategy? Maybe they will boost his supporters’ resolve to go to the polls. Turnout is key.”
Tina Fordham, Geopolitical Strategist and Founder of Fordham Global Foresight, London:
“The shooting complicates the election outlook for Democrats, who are already divided over Biden’s future as the nominee.”
“Political violence in the United States is unfortunately a feature, not a defect… The question now is how a country will respond when a large number of its citizens believe that civil war is increasingly likely.”
“We don’t expect there to be an initial reaction in financial markets. Rather, the short-term implications will be an acceleration of the market consensus on a Trump victory.”
Ian Bremmer, President, Eurasia Group, New York:
“This is a very dangerous turn of events in a deeply polarized country, and in a country where a large number of Americans do not believe their democracy is particularly healthy or functional.”
“This is the worst kind of event that can happen in this kind of environment, and I am deeply concerned that this portends more political violence and social instability in the future. This is the kind of thing we have seen historically in many countries that face instability, and it often ends irreversibly.”
“Democracy is not in crisis now. This year there are many, many elections. We have seen them in India, the most populous country in the world, with 1.5 billion people. We have seen them across the European Union, the largest single market. We have seen them in France, in the United Kingdom, in Mexico – in rich countries and poor countries, in democracies, everywhere.
“We’ve had free and fair elections and peaceful transitions. That’s not what we’re seeing in the United States right now. The United States is the only major democracy in the world right now that’s in serious crisis.”
Khoon Goh, Head of Asia Research, ANZ Bank, Singapore:
“Trump odds rose to 70% in betting markets after the assassination attempt. I’m not sure how the markets will respond.
“Bitcoin’s rally may be due to fears of more civil unrest. We’re likely to see some risk-off moves when the market opens, but that should fade quickly.”
Nick Twidale, Senior Market Analyst, ATFX Global, Sydney
“I think that probably increases the chance, and we might see some haven flows in the morning.”
Rong Ren Goh, Portfolio Manager, East Spring Investments, Singapore
“The shooting is likely to boost Trump’s support, and only reinforce the positive momentum he has after the presidential debates two weeks ago.
“The market reaction to the Trump presidency has been marked by a stronger US dollar and a rising US Treasury yield curve, so we may see some of that in the coming week if his election prospects are assessed to have improved further in the wake of this incident.”
Nick Ferris, Chief Investment Officer, VantagePoint Asset Management, Singapore
“The election is likely to be a landslide (for Trump). That might reduce the uncertainty.
“Trump has always been more pro-market – and the key issue we are looking at is whether fiscal policy will remain irresponsibly loose and what that might mean for (renewed) inflation and the future path of interest rates.”
Ferris cited polls that showed a surge in support for Ronald Reagan after the 1981 assassination attempt.
According to statistics recorded by the American Presidency Project at the University of California, Santa Barbara, Reagan’s popularity, which had already been rising sharply in the first months of his presidency, rose by another 7 percentage points in the first poll taken after the attempt.
The increase was temporary and then declined over the next three months.
Hemant Mishra, Chief Investment Officer, S Cube Capital, Singapore
“I think this will have a shocking reaction in the market which has been in a state of tension due to the US elections.
“I see the chances of a Trump trade deal strengthening over the next few months until November, unless the Democrats can come up with a really credible alternative.
“This would greatly improve his chances of winning, and would exacerbate the US growth curve over the next few months. (I) would bet on high growth, high inflation trades – good financials and energy, and negative Asian currencies.”
(This story has been corrected to correct reference to the aftermath of the Reagan assassination attempt in paragraphs 20, 21, 22, 23 and 24.)
