This article is also available in Spanish.
Cryptocurrency analyst Bob Lucas has released a new report Video analysis Titled “No Bull”. In the video, Lucas delves into the current state of the Bitcoin market, and addresses growing concerns that the bull run could be reversed.
Lucas begins by acknowledging the long period of consolidation for the Bitcoin price. He feels that “there is now some fear creeping into the market,” due in part to factors such as Bitcoin ETFs being out “for a while” and the halving “coming and going,” without resulting in a significant upward movement in prices.
Is Bitcoin’s bull run over?
Lucas notes that while traditional markets are performing strong — with “the stock market hitting all-time highs seemingly every week” and “even gold hitting all-time highs” — Bitcoin continues to “weak,” and altcoins are “dying.” “To a large extent.” Slow death.” He notes that “the only thing that really works are really speculative memcoins,” which contributes to negative sentiment in the cryptocurrency space.
However, he considers this development “rather normal,” stressing that despite these challenges, Bitcoin remains “close to its all-time highs from the previous cycle.” While discussing the eight months of consolidation in Bitcoin price, Lucas interprets this period as a bullish signal. “Eight months of consolidation is actually pretty bullish if the timing is right in the four-year cycle. The sentiment is right, it’s been reset; the fundamentals, the macro, I think it all feels right,” he says.
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Lucas also highlights that the market is “23 months” since the last cycle lows in November 2022, “24 months or two years away from the anniversary of this cycle”, which is set to end around November-December. 2026. He acknowledges “a great deal of fear that has crept into this market” after a “very bullish, very frothy period” from the ETF approval leak in September to October 2023 until the peak in March 2024.
One major concern, according to Lucas, is that Bitcoin hit an all-time high seven months ago in March, and since then, “we’ve been forming these lower highs on a monthly basis and also somewhat lower lows.” Build.” This created anxiety among investors who “entered the market too late, waiting for confirmation,” only to find themselves “closed out when the market moved for five straight months,” with no opportunity to buy during the decline.
He points out that many investors “have turned to a bunch of altcoins in this subsequent period that are now down 50, 60, 70%,” leading to a situation where, even though Bitcoin “is still up about 3x from the lowest… levels”, many people feel that they “did not extract any value from this session” or that they even “lost money during this period”. Lucas considers this scenario “quite normal from the perspective of the course structure.”
He asserts that during this bull phase, the market did not experience “the typical 30% decline at any given point,” with the “largest declines” being “mostly time-dependent and only about 20% peak-to-trough prior to that.” Making a new high.” This atypical behavior “turned off a lot of people” and “made it difficult for them to get in,” as they were “looking to buy on the dip that never came.”
Lucas points out that the current fiscal consolidation is a necessary stage to “completely reset morale in order to prepare for the next phase of this four-year cycle.” He finds it significant that Bitcoin “is here for 23 months, roughly 20% or so from its all-time highs in the highest four-year cycle in 2021,” making it appear “more poised for the next phase of the four-year cycle.” More than anything else.
He also draws parallels with previous cycles, noting that from the cycle low in December 2018 to the first point at which Bitcoin made a new high, “it took 23 months for the price to reach a four-year high to surpass that.” Similar patterns have been observed in previous cycles, with time frames of “about 25 months” and “about 22 months” for the all-time highs to be reached. In contrast, the current cycle achieved this feat “in just 16 months, much earlier,” which he attributes largely to ETF news that “forced buyers to enter earlier in the cycle than usual.”
Lucas believes this accelerated timeline has created a dynamic where “we now have to spin a lot of coins,” allowing “a lot of whales, a lot of old-timers” to “open up” and “go out and spin,” while “institutional players have… And larger players are accumulating those coins in this period. He sees this as “a matter of time more than anything else,” interpreting the current period as a process in which “the market ends up erasing all that bullish sentiment” from the previous phase, allowing “a complete decoupling.” One phase from the previous “cycle to this phase of the cycle” – essentially a “drop in the middle of the cycle”.
When will BTC price explode?
Overall, Lucas remains largely optimistic: “So far in this four-year cycle, I don’t see anything that has changed this trajectory, and nothing in the picture or structure tells me that this cycle is different from recent cycles.”
He cites several factors supporting his bullish outlook, including “huge inflows into Bitcoin, mostly from institutional institutions,” and the absorption of significant sell-offs by entities such as the German Government and the US Government, which have not significantly impacted the market. price. Lucas confirms that “the price decreased by only 20%; It has held up well. He also states that “the ETF still exists; It will be paid through independent advisor channels, and the timing is there; At a macro level, the fundamentals are in place.”
Lucas is particularly enthusiastic about cyclical patterns, noting that “the third year of each of these four cycles is where the magic happens.” He explains, “The first year surprises everyone, and that represents a lot of progress. The second year seems to stop because it consolidates the gains of the first year. The third year is the year of mania. And now, starting next month, we have the year of mania looming on the horizon.”
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“Within the next 90 days… we will break out of this consolidating range; we expect to break out of this consolidating range,” he predicts. We will break out to the upside.” Once that happens, he believes Bitcoin “will not look back,” predicting a period that “may only see one or two monthly red candles and mostly green candles.” While he refrains from offering specific price targets, he admits that reaching to “$120,000 to $180,000 also seems very reasonable.”
Lucas stresses that the focus should be on “time and sentiment,” aiming for a move “in the range where previous cycles peaked,” which has been “very consistent at about the 35th month since the low.” This timing would put the expected peak at around “October of 2025”, giving “another 12 months for the expected or projected peak”. He points out that this is not a constant and that the peak could come “three, four or five months ago”, because market movements “can come in many different flavours”.
Moving into the immediate future, Lucas admits that the next couple of months will be “a bit ambiguous”, with “a lot of factors still at play at the moment”. He talks about the upcoming US elections on November 4th, noting that “Trump and the Republican Party have already been promoting cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin,” and that “the market will certainly respond very positively to the Republican Party winning the election simply because of their stance on cryptocurrencies.” However, he explains that he doesn’t think it “matter at all” who wins, as Bitcoin has thrived even when “governments have been very hostile towards it.”
Lucas predicts that the market may “go sideways during that period in November,” and that a major move may not occur until after the election is over. “We still have about three to four weeks of some mainstream sideways movement,” he notes, and he would be “very surprised if this market can get to the $70,000 level before the elections here in the US.”
At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $60,699.
Featured image created with DALL.E, a chart from TradingView.com
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