The poll shows that among 34 economists surveyed, 19 (54%) are expecting another rate hike by this year-end. None of them are anticipating one as soon as June though but 5 economists are seeing a rate hike take place during Q3. Following which, that only leaves the October and December meetings for the BOJ to squeeze in such a move. But that seems to be the hot pick among economists as of now.
The median rate forecast for the BOJ for this year-end is seen at 0.20%.
That being said, nearly 75% of the economists polled say that the odds of the BOJ increasing rates faster than expected was the biggest risk for their projections.
I think I’ll try and put things more simply. The BOJ does seem like they are going to move rather slowly and gradually, if they are to further normalise monetary policy from here. But as for the timing of the next move, nobody really has a strong indication of that for now. It has only been a few days after the historic policy move. Let them cook.
