The final collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria this morning puts a stamp on a major change in the balance of influence in the Middle East. Iran has been greatly weakened, while Türkiye has taken its place.
The regime of the Ayatollahs in Iran is paying a heavy price for the policy of its agents. When the commander of the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Qassem Soleimani, devised this policy, it made sense at the time. However, Iranians in general, and Soleimani’s successor Esmail Qaani in particular, were not aware enough to make the necessary adjustments. So, although the Iranian resistance axis seemed threatened in the wake of Israel’s failure on October 7, it is now possible to understand that it was a house of cards.
In arranging Iran’s needs, Hamas was not a basis but a tool. At the top of Iran’s priorities is Hezbollah, a terrorist organization with a state. This was also reflected in Iran’s policy in Syria. The Iranian regime has rushed to Assad’s aid in the past decade not out of concern for his safety, but out of a desire to expand its influence in Syria in a way that enables it to maintain a continuous supply of weapons to Hezbollah.
However, the house of cards is reeling, because every card is shaking. The attack launched by Hamas on October 7 upset the balance, and this is what led to the fall of the Assad regime. Fortunately, it was not a terrorist attack on two fronts like the coordinated attacks that took place in Egypt and Syria in 1973. The Iranians failed to understand the event that occurred in the Gaza Strip in all aspects, so they sent Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah late in the day from Their point of view. In order to open another front with Israel.
Nasrallah and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei thought that Israel would agree to a war of attrition on the Lebanese border, but reality hit them in the face. Once the IDF had finished destroying most of Hamas’ military infrastructure, it turned to using its much larger forces in Lebanon, breaking Hezbollah’s united front concept. Now, this powerful and threatening terrorist organization is in its worst position ever.
All the while, the rebels in Syria were following the developments of the Iron Sword War, and from their point of view, they left the task of weakening the Shiite Crescent, and especially Hezbollah, to Israel. Therefore, when the ceasefire was held, the Syrian rebel groups Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and the Syrian National Army, especially its Turkish sponsors, saw this as an auspicious time to bring down the Assad regime. And here we are: Bashar al-Assad was ousted in twelve days, six days less than the time it took to oust Hosni Mubarak in Egypt in February 2011.
Perfect storm
It happened because of a perfect storm: a combination of the extraordinary weakness of Iran, which was left without important tools, and the regional weakness of Russia, because the invasion of Ukraine monopolized attention and resources. This war in itself represents a miserable failure for Russia, given its arrogant statements in February 2022 and the situation today in which the Russian President is forced to flatter North Korean leader Kim Jong Un until the latter sends him soldiers. As gun fodder.
In the Syrian case, it is noted that Israel has learned from the mistakes of October 2023. First, you reinforce your forces, while constantly assessing the situation, so that you understand which way the wind is blowing. The situation in Syria is very sensitive. Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham is an offshoot of al-Qaeda, and is filled with extremist jihadists who come from everywhere from China to the Balkans. We saw in Egypt how Muhammad Morsi came to power instead of Mubarak, and Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham is more extremist than him.
What Morsi and the main rebel groups in Syria (except the Kurds) have in common is an association with Turkey. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan must be rubbing his hands with pleasure as he sees that his trick is working and making him the main player in Syria. A former senior Quds Force figure recounted how Turkey deceived Iran. He says: “We asked the Turks and many Arab countries, and we received assurances that no movements would occur.” “Hakan Fidan told us specifically that.” In other words, according to the Iranians, the Turkish Foreign Minister lied to them. The result was that when the escalation began, Iran was left without a response.
Israel will now, more than ever, have to examine its relations with Türkiye. It is easy to say “they hate Israel” and accuse them of supporting terrorism, but Israel has a relationship with Türkiye, which of course cannot be said about Iran. The combination of Turkish and Israeli interests, where Erdogan gets the kind of leverage he can brandish in the Palestinian arena while Israel gets useful leverage in Syria, is the only way in which the unrest in Syria can bring some benefit to Israel, and not to Israel. The danger of the establishment of an aggressive Syrian Sharia state against Israel on the borders of the Golan Heights.
Published by Globes, Israel Business News – en.globes.co.il – on December 8, 2024.
© Copyright Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd., 2024.
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