Leo Leiderman: US tariffs will indirectly affect Israel

As one of the largest commentators in the macroeconomic economy in Israel, Leo Lyderman, the chief economic advisor at Habwalm Bank and economics professor at Tel Aviv University, almost every kind of possible economic crisis. Now, Trump’s tariff can be believed to be the black swan in 2025, and sees the possibility that the president can retract his aggressive steps. It also analyzes how the scenario that can also affect Israel?

Why are you afraid that President Trump’s tariff will be in black rays?

Lederman: “As is known, the concept of black swan indicates an exceptional event that is in advance and surprises the market In growth, damage to international trade, high inflation, interest rates, and declining living levels around the world.

Can Trump down?

“Everything is possible. It is not expected that the measures of the imposition of customs duties until midnight will enter Monday, at the present time. Until then and in the coming days, there may be talks between Trump and the leaders of some of the above countries, and partial or full withdrawal from new measures maybe. “

Definitions are not just a punishment

One of the main questions that arise now is what Trump is trying to achieve by imposing definitions. “First, he wants to reduce the size of the American running account with both the countries concerned,” explains Lederman. Second, he wants to increase state tax revenues (including customs duties) to financial discounts in other taxes. Third, it is believed that measures will protect local industries from cheap competing imports. Finally, in his opinion, the imposition of customs duties aims to “punish” Canada Mexico is that there are no difficult policies to reduce illegal immigration and drug trafficking. “

What do you think of thinking behind these goals?

“Theory, economic research and accumulated experiences over the years indicate that commercial wars have very negative effects on economic activity, employment and living levels. Over the past three decades, the world has witnessed how to remove some restrictions on international trade and this step towards free trade has contributed to improving levels Living and reducing poverty in most regions of the world.

What will be the effects on Israel?

“Israel is not at the developing center of the developing trade war, and this is a good thing. In fact, our international trade is spread equally between North America, Europe, Asia and other regions. Assuming that Trump does not impose a new tariff on us, most of the effects will be indirect. The geographical risks of our exports and imports.

It was published by Globes, Israel Business News – En.globes.co.il – on February 4, 2025.

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