The US and Canadian jobs report will be released at the end of the hour. What to expect for May in the United States?
- Nonfarm Payrolls Estimates 185k (vs. 175k)
- Private payroll, 170,000 vs. 167,000 last month.
- Manufacturing payrolls, 5k vs 8k last month
- The unemployment rate is 3.9% compared to 3.9% last month
- Average monthly earnings were 0.3% compared to 0.2% last month
- Average year-over-year earnings are 3.9% versus 3.9% last month
- Average work week (hours) 34.3 compared to 3.4% last month
- Labor Force Participation Rate: No estimate vs. 62.7% last month
- Underemployment U6: No estimate vs. 7.4% last month.
in Canada,
- Employment is expected to change by 22.5K versus 90.4 last month
- The unemployment rate is 6.2% compared to 6.1% last month
- Part-time employment last month 50.3 thousand
- Working full time last month 40.1
- Participation rate was 65.4 last month
- Average hourly earnings last month were 4.8%.
Looking at some of the US employment data released so far:
- ADP Employment changed by 152K vs. 173K estimate. The previous month was revised to 188k from 192k. minimum
- ISM Manufacturing PMI 51.1 vs. 48.6 last month. Above and above 50.0 (expanding)
- The ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment Index was 47.2 compared to 45.9 in April. Above but below 50.0 (contracted)
- JOLTs: 8.06 million vs. 8.37 million estimate. The lowest and lowest level since February 2024.
- Challenger layoffs 63,816 thousand compared to 64,789 thousand last month. Little has changed, but it is below the 2024 high of 90.39K
- MA 4-Week Initial Jobless Claims 222.25K. Highest levels since September 2023. Highest levels since fall after pandemic reached 253,000. The lowest level was at 197 thousand.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
