A look at the day ahead in the US and global markets from Mike Dolan
Although the Fed’s “tight cut” on Thursday was widely expected, markets now fear 4% interest rates will be the floor for at least next year – and no further easing until mid-year or later.
The picture painted by the Fed has been removing monetary easing as a tailwind for the stock market for months and has seen the dollar rise to its highest levels in more than two years – outperforming emerging, developed and crypto currencies alike.
Fed policymakers raised their average inflation forecast for next year by 0.3 percentage point to 2.5%, but pushed up GDP growth only by a tenth to 2.1%, and also raised their forecast for interest rates for the next two years by half a point to 3.9%. 4%. % respectively.
They also raised the longer-term horizon, with the long-term neutral rate forecast rising to 3% for the first time since 2018.
“It is a new phase and we will be cautious about further cuts,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said after the Fed announced the widely expected quarter-point cut to the 4.25-4.50% range.
Markets took the signal and futures are now not fully pricing in another quarter-point cut until June at the earliest – and I doubt there will be more over the rest of the year.
Already soured Treasuries were hit hard again, with 10-year and 30-year bond yields jumping 4.5% and 4.7%, respectively, to their highest levels since May. The 2-10 year yield curve steepened to its highest level in three months.
Adding to the concerns, debt ceiling concerns have resurfaced on the radar. President-elect Donald Trump on Wednesday disrupted bipartisan efforts to avoid a government shutdown as he pressured Republicans in Congress to reject a stopgap bill to keep the government funded beyond the weekend.
The combination of events has left no Christmas cheer for a historically expensive stock market that has already seen momentum slow and is increasingly fearful of investors’ almost unchallengeable upside for 2025. Some are now pointing to a mostly positive post-election financial and economic scenario as well as a theme of “exception “The American is already in the price.
The S&P 500 index and the Dow Jones index of major stocks saw their largest single-day percentage declines since early August, and the Nasdaq index recorded its largest decline since July. The small-cap Russell 2000 fell 4.4%, its biggest decline since June 2022.
Although still up 12% for 2024 so far, the Dow Jones suffered declines for the 10th straight session — its longest streak of daily losses since 1974.
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