Milton’s storm surge is a threat that could be devastating far beyond the Tampa Bay region

Article content

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (AP) — Two weeks ago, Hurricane Helen “saved” the Tampa Bay area from a direct hit, yet the storm surge still caused catastrophic damage, submerging homes, drowning people who decided to stay near the coast and leaving massive piles of debris. . Debris that remains on the sides of the roads.

Now that Hurricane Milton, a stronger storm, is headed straight for the same area, what can residents expect?

“Worse. It’s much worse,” said former FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate, a Florida resident who previously ran the state’s Division of Emergency Management.

Article content

Cities near the mouth of Tampa Bay experienced some of the worst storms in memory during Helen’s time even though the storm touched down more than 100 miles (161 kilometers) to the north. Meteorologists now say the low-lying area could be hit by a 15-foot (5-meter) storm surge.

“This is not slowly rising water. This is fast-moving water with waves. It’s like a battering ram,” Fugate said. “You just don’t want to be in that area. In this way, we lost a lot of lives in all the surge areas from which people did not leave. “They were drowned or crushed because their houses collapsed on them.”

What is storm surge?

Storm surge is the level at which sea water rises above its normal level.

Just as the sustained winds of a storm do not include the potential for stronger gusts, a storm surge does not include the wave height above the average water level of the surge itself.

The surge is also an amount higher than normal tide at that time, so a storm surge of 15 feet (5 m) at high tide with waves 10 feet (3 m) above that can easily level buildings. Demolish bridges and level anything in its path.

Article content

Article content

How could it affect the west coast of Florida?

Florida’s western peninsula coast includes the Tampa Bay area, although Tampa is not alone in being at risk. St. Petersburg and the densely populated barrier islands are located on the Gulf of Mexico near the mouth of the bay. The storm threat extends about 150 miles (241 kilometers) north into the state’s Big Bend region and more than 150 miles (241 kilometers) south into Naples and the Florida Keys.

Milton will have a massive impact no matter where it lands, but the worst wave will be south of Milton’s eye. If that included Tampa Bay and the 3.3 million people living in the area, the flooding could be catastrophic. The area has not been hit directly by a major hurricane in more than 100 years.

If it hits southern Tampa Bay, cities like Sarasota, Venice, Fort Myers and Naples could be devastated just two years after Hurricane Ian caused catastrophic damage, sweeping away homes and businesses and making bridges to the barrier islands impassable.

What will happen to the debris still on the ground after Helen?

Article content

State and local governments are moving as quickly as possible to remove storm tree limbs, furniture, appliances and other debris left in huge piles after Hurricane Helen. But they won’t get rid of all that.

While state and local officials fear that Milton’s winds and waves will turn debris into deadly projectiles, Fugit points out that it will not kill anyone if they are evacuated and that property damage will be severe with or without debris being blown and swept away.

“I have a feeling that whatever is still standing is going to be rubble and you won’t be able to recognize it,” Fugate said. “If you have enough water to move these things, you’ll be able to move houses and cars and other things, too.”

But the storm can weaken, right?

Sure, Milton could weaken from Category 5 to Category 3 before making landfall, but that wouldn’t make much difference when it comes to storm surge.

“Winds don’t have a memory, storms have a memory. So, what a storm does on a daily basis is going to have a huge impact on storm surge,” Fugate said. “Once that energy is in the water and you’re pushing it, even if you see some weakening, it doesn’t “It really changes.”

The area to which Milton is heading has a large number of creeks, canals and rivers that could cause problems beyond the immediate coast.

“This is the type of storm that a lot of people focus on the category and track, and they really need to listen to their local weather service offices and the hurricane center about impacts,” Fugate said. “Storms are not related to the wind, they are related to the wind.”

Article content