David Shellly, regional financial advisor to Mizrahi Tefahot Regional, which was interviewed before the depreciation of the Deepseek market, decreased, on the reflection of the bond return curve. The return on government bonds should be higher as they invested, and it is usually. But the return curve, which constantly depicts the return on government bonds over the time of time, inverted two years ago and is now on its way to “natural”. “Globes” tells, “it is an indicator that predicted the previous crises of great probability, and once again presents the possibility of a crisis that can fly many investors. In the past twenty years, every time the curve is inverted and returned to a” normal “mandate after a period of Time, while the US Federal Reserve has reduced interest rates, the recession hit the United States after a few months.
“The index indicates the possibility of stagnation in the American economy and the significant decline in stock indicators in the coming months. The interest rates began to decline and I think this will lead to gains, but when there is a reflection and Curve returns to normal, a sign of the possibility of stagnation in the months The next few.
Thus, Shellly warns investors, “Do not rush to increase the exposure to stocks. On the contrary, this is the time to study risk in the wallet, reduce exposure to stocks and return to your original exposure before increasing the past two years.” However, do not recommend SHELY to completely exit from The stock market, because “over time the market and the periods of decline are short and fast. In the long run, optimism is an important feature of investors.”
“To transfer money to Israel”
Accordingly, Chile prefers money to Israel. He says: “Israel has finished amazing in 2024 in an amazing way, and until it exceeded the indicators in the United States. The expectation of the end of the war and the rehabilitation of the economy brings optimism to the market. Recovery compared to the main economies, and therefore the money must be transferred to Israel.
The interest rates will decrease “faster than expected”
On the positive side, Chile believes that interest rates in the United States and Israel will decrease faster than this year and give the United States as an example. “Last year, the expectation was six discounts, and in fact it decreased only three times. This year, the opposite is likely to happen – the market expects one or two rats and I think it will decrease more. It is worth investing in bonds and” repairing “today’s revenues.
As a result, Shellly recommends receiving investors on a portfolio consisting of 7 % of American stocks, 8 % of Israeli stocks, another 25 % in Israeli companies bonds, 30 % in Israeli government bonds and 5 % in foreign companies bonds. The balance is devoted to “Al -Mazbat” – 25 % in Makam and Wadiqa, because “the return on Makam (the Bank of Israel loan for one year, which is equivalent to bonds for one year) is very good, and if there are sharp declines, this will allow both the return and increase exposure” . As for the aggressive investor, it recommends abandoning the liquidity component but also reduces the exposure of shares. Consequently, 15 % is allocated to American stocks, 25 % for Israeli stocks, 30 % for Israeli companies bonds, 20 % to Israeli government bonds and 10 % for foreign companies bonds.
Defense industries ascending
When asked about the sectors that deserve to be investigated during the next year, Chile recommends the technology sector abroad, which says: “One of the main growth engines in the global economy will remain, with a focus on areas such as cybersecurity, centers and AI data (the interview was conducted before the storm In the industry caused by Depsic). He also recommends the health sector, one of the weakest in 2024, and he notes that he is “considered stable and has capabilities, but we must also realize the organizational challenges from the new administration.”
Finally, it recommends the defense industries sector in both Israel and abroad, where it is expected to benefit from global geopolitical instability, especially the war of Russia and Krin, and “multi -part war in the Middle East.” According to him, the tensions have led “many countries, especially in Europe, to look around and prepare on an unprecedented scale, with an increase in the defense budget to finance the purchase of advanced systems, full renewal, and the like.”
In Israel, it stresses the shares of banks, despite the upward trend last year. “Traditionally, the capital double of 1 will guarantee a full price for bank stocks, but this is something of the past. Today, banks know how to generate high returns from numbers stems from both expenses (great efficiency gains) and income with increased financial margin (high interest).
Chile also recommends that Israel be exposed to the residential construction sector. He explains that “land supplies in Israel decreases over the years, and the population rate per square meter is one of the highest rates in the West. This year, we will see a continuous decrease in providing housing real estate and the pace of construction begins, while there are increasing costs, and a shortage of Workers and high interest rates.
It was published by Globes, Israel Business News – En.globes.co.il – on January 28, 2025.
© Copy Publish Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd. , 2025.
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