NZDUSD has been trading above and below the 100-day moving average this week but above the 200-day moving average (green line) until the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s interest rate decision mid-week. The central bank cut interest rates by 50 basis points sending the pair below the 61.8% level but buyers came in for the 61.8% correction. The subsequent bounce off the bottom on Wednesday saw the price return to the 200-day moving average as sellers folded in, putting a lid on the pair.
There was a recent downward move that led to 61.8% and this week’s low, but it quickly failed.
This led to a turn back higher and back between the 200 day moving average at 0.6095, and the 100 day moving average above at 0.61215. This is the price now.
Going into this week, the 100 and 200 day moving averages were the key levels to the downside. As we close out the week and look to next week, the same 100/200 day moving averages will be key levels again.
If the price moves above the 100-day EMA on the upside, I expect more upside with traders targeting 0.6167 to 0.61795 as the next target area. Move above and there will be more upward momentum.
Conversely, if the 200-day EMA is broken to the downside, I expect more downside momentum with traders once again targeting the 61.8% retracement level at 0.60509. Move below and there should be more downward momentum.
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