US companies already dominate the global stock market when it comes to size. A new chart from JPMorgan Asset Management shows that it is largely expected to continue. The company attributes this boom to artificial intelligence.
In its 2025 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions released Monday, the team forecasts that the market capitalization share of U.S. companies in the total global stock market will decline from 64% currently to 60% in 2037. However, as shown in the chart below, The United States (in green) will maintain a significant lead over the second largest share of the global stock market, China (in red).
Monica Essar, global head of multi-asset and portfolio solutions at JPMorgan Asset Management, told Yahoo Finance during a media roundtable on Monday that the U.S. will continue to lead in terms of market value share as the benefits of AI expand beyond a few technology names. The big ones that dominated the market. A gathering over the past year of companies in various industries.
Essar gave two reasons for the forecast: revenue production and margin improvement. The first will come from money flowing into AI that benefits companies outside of Big Tech. This happens when tech companies buy AI chips from the likes of Nvidia (NVDA), and since they need more power, these AI players are forced to spend with companies in the utilities (XLU) and energy (XLE) sectors.
As AI makes companies more efficient and eliminates simpler tasks, ultimately lowering costs, American companies should get a boost in profit margins.
“It’s going to be mostly the US, and then obviously Europe will follow, because you’re starting to see some adoption there,” Issar said.
To put current US dominance in perspective, Nvidia’s (NVDA) market capitalization alone is larger than most other G7 countries, Torsten Slok, global chief economist at Apollo, wrote in a research note on Thursday. (Disclosure: Yahoo Finance is owned by Apollo Global Management.)
Certainly, Slouk pointed out that this could pose a risk to the overall market.
“Global equity markets, including equity retirement allocations, are primarily leveraged to benefit Nvidia,” Slok wrote. “Let’s hope Nvidia’s value doesn’t drop too much.”
However, others have a more optimistic view of AI superpower dominance. In a recent research note detailing why the S&P 500 (^GSPC) could deliver average annual returns of more than 10% over the next decade, Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, noted that the United States is at the forefront of AI adoption and in… Well positioned for dominance amidst “global adoption” of technology.
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