- We neither seek nor welcome further easing of the labor market.
- We will do our utmost to support a strong labor market while making further progress toward price stability.
This is undoubtedly peaceful.
- I have increased my confidence that inflation is on a sustainable path back to 2%.
- Upside risks to inflation have fallen, and downside risks to employment have increased.
- Inflation now ‘much closer to target’
- “The slowdown in labor market conditions is ‘unmistakable’”
- Full text
quote:
“The time has come to adjust policy. The direction is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, changing expectations, and the balance of risks.”
And this is the clearest offer you’ll ever get from a Fed chairman:
We will do all we can to support a strong labor market while making further progress toward price stability. With appropriate policy easing, there is good reason to believe that the economy will return to 2 percent inflation while maintaining a strong labor market. The current level of the policy rate gives us ample room to respond to any risks we may face, including the risk of further unwelcome weakness in labor market conditions.
Before the speech, the market was pricing in a 28% chance of a 50bp hike, 97bp through December and 193bp by this time next year. He certainly didn’t close the door on a 50bp hike here, and his commentary offered no hint of a gradual move.
Here is a live stream but there are no Q&As and the transcript has been pre-released.
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