predicting the next president and making money with decentralized markets

What’s the buzz around decentralized prediction markets for the 2024 election? Learn how to predict the next president and profit from your insights.

Have you ever wondered if you could predict the outcome of an event and profit from your predictions? Decentralized prediction markets are making this possibility a reality. Recently, these markets have seen tremendous growth, especially as the 2024 US presidential election approaches.

Polymarket, a leading cryptocurrency prediction market platform, has seen a significant spike in activity. According to Sand dune analysisPolymarkets’ turnover exceeded $100 million in June alone, marking a record month in the platform’s launch year.

The surge continued into July, with $9.3 million worth of bets placed on the first day alone. This daily volume exceeded the typical monthly volumes Polymarket saw last year, which ranged between $3 million and $8 million.

From January to May 2024, PolyMarket’s monthly trading volumes ranged between $40 million and $60 million, a massive 7-12x increase compared to monthly trading volumes the previous year. In June, $111 million worth of bets were placed, an all-time high for the platform.

One of the most popular contests on Polymarket is the “Winner of the 2024 presidential election“, which has attracted more than $208 million in bets since its inception. Currently, the odds are in Donald Trump’s favor at 66% and Joe Biden’s at 21%.

Analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein NB Blockchain-based platforms like PollyMarket are enhancing the efficiency of election markets by providing transparency and liquidity, they said in a recent client note, highlighting how PollyMarket, built on blockchain, is increasing public appreciation of the role of cryptocurrencies in politics.

With this growing interest in these platforms, let’s take a deeper look at how they work, explore the standout bets, identify the leading platforms, and discover how you can participate and potentially benefit without placing bets.

What are decentralized prediction markets and how do they work?

Decentralized prediction markets are betting platforms that allow people to bet on the outcomes of real-world events using blockchain technology.

These markets operate on decentralized networks, meaning there is no central authority controlling transactions. Instead, they use smart contracts – self-executing contracts with the terms of the agreement written directly into the code. This ensures that all transactions are transparent, secure, and tamper-free.

Polymarket is one of the most popular decentralized prediction markets. Operating on the Ethereum (ETH) Layer 2 (L2) network, Polygon (MATIC), Polymarket allows users to speculate on various events, such as political outcomes, entertainment, and sports, using the stablecoin USDC. This integration ensures liquidity and stability in transactions.

Polymarket uses an automated market maker (AMM) pool model similar to Uniswap (UNI). Liquidity providers provide on-chain market liquidity, and users trade these tokens to place their bets.

For example, if you believe a particular candidate will win the election, you can buy “Yes” shares at a price that reflects the current market odds. If the event happens as you predicted, you will make a profit. If it doesn’t, you will incur a loss. This system allows you to leverage your knowledge and expectations about different events.

Poly Market is not it Just A major player in the decentralized prediction market. Platforms like Augur and Hedgehog also offer similar services, allowing users to speculate on a variety of events.

For example, Augur runs on the Ethereum blockchain and uses a native token (REP) for betting. Hedgehog is another emerging platform that leverages the same principles of decentralized betting with a focus on user-friendly interfaces and diverse market offerings.

Popular bets on Polymarket

The buzz around the 2024 US presidential election has created a flurry of activity on Polymarket. Let’s dive into some of the most popular bets and what they reveal about public sentiment.

Biden’s Modest Debate Performance

The first presidential debate on June 27, 2024, marked a decisive change in betting patterns on Bull Market. Joe Biden’s performance, widely criticized as one of the weakest since the beginning of the era of televised debates, led to a significant increase in bets.

Before the debate, Biden’s chances of winning the Democratic nomination were 91%. But after his performance, Biden’s chances of winning the Democratic nomination have declined. Projection Donations to Biden have risen to 71%, with more than $21.2 million on Biden and $5.06 million on Kamala Harris, who has 11% support so far.

Meanwhile, the likelihood that Biden would drop out of the race rose sharply from 19% before the debate to 44% by July 1. Although it has fallen slightly, I got better The volatility rate is 35%, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding his campaign.

On the Republican side, betting sentiment is heavily biased towards favor With more than $6.6 million in bets, Trump is projected to have a 99% chance of winning the Republican nomination, in sharp contrast to the fluctuating confidence in Biden’s campaign.

Swing State Forecast

Swing states are crucial to determining the outcome of the election, and polls by Politico indicate a Republican sweep in key states.

For example, Republicans are And expect To win Nevada (71%), Michigan (53%), Pennsylvania (58%), Arizona (73%), Wisconsin (56%), Georgia (80%), and North Carolina (83%).

With over $3 million in total bets backing these predictions, the Republican Party has emerged as the clear winner in all of these swing states.

There is also a noteworthy prediction regarding international affairs: there is a 56% chance that Israel will invade Lebanon before September, which would further exacerbate already complex geopolitical situations around the world.

How to make money from decentralized betting markets?

Decentralized prediction markets offer opportunities to make money, but they also come with very high risks. Here’s how to take advantage of these platforms, along with some important tips.

Become a liquidity provider

One of the easiest ways to make money on platforms like Polymarket is to become a liquidity provider. Here’s how it works:

• USDC DepositYou can deposit USDC into the platform’s liquidity pool.
• earn feesBy providing liquidity, you can earn a share of trading fees whenever users place bets.
• Automated Market Maker (AMM)The platform uses an AMM model, ensuring that your funds are used to facilitate trading and betting efficiently.

This method provides a steady stream of income without betting directly on events, making it a less risky option compared to live betting.

Place live bets

Another way to make money is to place live bets based on the odds of certain events. For example:

• Select an eventSelect the event you want to bet on, such as the outcome of the presidential election.
• probability analysisConsider the current odds and make your prediction.
• Place your betBet an amount you feel comfortable with, knowing that if your prediction is correct, you can earn a huge return.

In addition to Polymarket, several other platforms offer decentralized prediction markets. These platforms work in a similar way, allowing you to provide liquidity or place live bets on various events.

Although these opportunities can be lucrative, they involve very high risks. If the odds are not in your favor, you could incur significant losses.

It is important to trade with caution and not invest more than you can afford to lose. Always make sure to conduct thorough research and consider seeking advice from financial experts before venturing into this field.