Presidential poll: last-minute voters favor Kamala Harris

Pollster Frank Luntz said Americans who are truly undecided at this late stage probably won’t vote for Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, and may even miss the election.

But he believes there are uncommitted voters who can be persuaded and who could represent a decisive margin. The new data shows signs that these voters are gritting their teeth, holding their noses, and choosing between two people they don’t like.

Latest New York Times/Siena College Survey Results released on Sunday showed close races in the seven key battleground states. But among those who have decided in the past few days, Harris has a 58%-42% advantage.

However, there are regional differences that can skew the Electoral College map and fluctuate expectations about which states will provide the winning votes.

Among latecomers in the Sun Belt, Harris leads 66% to 34%, according to times. Among late deciders in the North, Trump leads 60% to 40%.

The numbers mean that the so-called blue wall strategy pursued by Democrats to secure victory across Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin may be at risk. But they also suggest that Harris has an alternative route through parts of the South and West.

in times In the poll, Harris leads by three points in Nevada, Wisconsin and North Carolina, along with one point in Georgia. Trump leads by four points in Arizona and by one point in Michigan. The two candidates are tied in Pennsylvania. But the results from all seven states were within the margin of sampling error.

At the same time, he was closely followed Des Moines Register/mediacom Iowa poll A study conducted by Selzer & Co. showed Harris leads Trump 47% to 44%, a stunning reversal from September.

The numbers shocked election observers late Saturday because they suggested that not only could a deep red state suddenly emerge, but that Harris might have more support in other parts of the Midwest.

This is because the same poll in 2020 poured cold water on Democrats’ hopes of achieving a landslide in the region where other polls indicated a significant lead for Joe Biden. In the final vote tally, he barely managed to beat Trump in the states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by narrow margins.

Elsewhere, prediction markets over the past week have swung wildly from giving Trump a huge advantage to showing extreme heat or even a slight advantage for Harris.

said Thomas Miller, a data scientist at Northwestern University luck Recently, Trump is suffering a historic collapse in the final days of the campaign that could lead to Harris winning the election.

The turning point came late last month during Trump’s meeting in Madison Square Garden. That’s when comedian Tony Hinchcliffe described Puerto Rico as a “floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean,” sparking widespread backlash.