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What to expect:
- Consensus Estimate +243K (range +150 to +280K)
- Special estimate +190k versus +232k previously
- February +303K
- Consensus estimate for unemployment rate: 3.8% vs. 3.8% previously
- Participation rate: 62.7% previously
- Previous underemployment U6 7.3%
- Average Hourly Earnings YoY Expected +4.0% YoY vs. +4.1% previously
- Average hourly earnings month/month +0.3% vs. +0.3% previously
- Expected average weekly hours are 34.4 versus 34.4 previously
March jobs so far:
- ADP report +192K vs. +175K expected and +208K previous
- The ISM Employment Report was released Friday at 10 a.m. ET
- The ISM Manufacturing Employment Index reached 48.6 versus 47.4 previously
- Challenger job cuts by 64.7K vs. 90.3K previously (lowest in four months)
- Philadelphia Employment -10.7 vs. -9.6 previously
- Empire Employment -5.7 vs. -7.1 previously
- Weekly Initial Jobless Claims Survey 212K
According to BMO, the headline payroll reading was seasonally positive in April – coming in above estimates 57% of the time (average of 62K), missing 39% of the time (average of 50K), and matching consensus 4%. at that time (except 2020/21). Regarding the unemployment rate, 44% of previous readings in April were below expectations, 36% were above estimates, and 20% matched expectations.
Overall, these numbers suggest an improvement, but the consensus is the highest since September 2022, suggesting that economists have priced in plenty of upside already.
Non-farm payrolls and consensus
