- Consensus estimate: +160K vs. +175K previously (range: +100K to +246K)
- July was +114k
- Special consensus +139k vs. +148k previously
- Unemployment rate estimated at 4.2% vs. 4.3% previously
- Previous participation rate 62.6%
- Previous underemployment U6 7.8% v
- Average hourly earnings on an annual basis expected +3.7% vs. +3.7% previously
- Average hourly earnings per month expected +0.3% vs. +0.3% previously
- Average expected weekly work hours: 34.3 vs. 34.2 previously
Figures released so far this month:
- ADP report indicates +99K jobs vs. +122K jobs previously – the lowest level in three and a half years
- ISM Services Employment Index 50.2 vs. 51.1 previously (weak but first straight reading above 50 since late 2023)
- ISM Manufacturing Employment Rate 46.0 vs. 43.4 Previously
- Challenger to cut 75,891 jobs vs. 25,885 jobs previously – highest since 2009 (excluding 2020 pandemic)
- Philadelphia employment down -5.7 vs. +15.2 previously
- Empire employment down -6.7 vs. -7.9 previously
- Initial Jobless Claims Survey Last Week: 233K vs. 245K Previous
There’s a seasonal oddity to the August nonfarm payrolls report: The report has missed the mark in 17 of the past 23 years before revisions. However, it’s worth noting that the BLS may be improving its seasonal adjustment methods as it has been higher than expected in the past two years, albeit by only 15,000 and 17,000, respectively. Over the 20-year period, there’s a 70-30 split in the downside misses.
Another thing to note is that the disappointing July jobs report may have been dragged down by Hurricane Beryl, and we may get some compensation this month.
The key pair to watch when the data comes out is USD/JPY, which has fallen for three straight days since the data was released and has essentially flatlined for the year, erasing 20-figure gains. With two-year yields now at 17-month lows, downward pressure is building.
USD/JPY Daily
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