Putin’s Shadow Looms Over Moldova’s Vote on EU Membership

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(Bloomberg) — In a family plum orchard in the hills northwest of Moldova’s capital, Chisinau, it’s easy to see why Zinaida Plamadala is keen to ensure her country stays on its path to European integration.

The company she runs with her brother, PDG Frukt, sells almost all of its products to the European Union, which Moldova is in talks to join. Palamadala, 33, now hopes that enough of her citizens will support future membership in a pivotal referendum on October 20.

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“We are a small country that needs to be part of something bigger, and joining the European Union one day is the only way for us,” Plamadilla said as she arranged export orders on a sunny day in early fall. “Deviation from this path would lead us into a period of enormous uncertainty.”

With a population of 2.6 million and one of the smallest economies in Europe, Moldova barely registers on most EU metrics. But the small former Soviet republic sandwiched between EU member Romania and war-torn Ukraine is of great importance when it comes to the continent’s security and confronting the threat posed by Vladimir Putin’s Russia.

The European Union is the largest investor in Moldova. It has helped the country break its dependence on Russian natural gas and build electricity infrastructure since Putin invaded its neighbor in February 2022.

A procession of European leaders passes through Chisinau to support the EU ahead of the vote, culminating with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last week. She said the bloc would allocate 1.8 billion euros ($2 billion) to support the country’s membership plan.

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“A great achievement awaits the people of Moldova,” von der Leyen said. “It is up to you, Moldovans, to decide. What to do with your country is your sovereign choice and no one can interfere.

The question now is whether the allure of joining the world’s richest economic club can counter Moscow’s influence and the growing security threat since the invasion of Ukraine. It is also an issue that is being raised in other parts of the former Soviet sphere, such as in Georgia.

The Moldovan government and some of its Western allies say Russia is organizing a propaganda campaign and financing protests and disinformation. Opinion polls show that Russia has the support of about a quarter of the population.

“We need to capture this moment,” Igor Zaharov, a European affairs adviser to President Maia Sandu, said in an interview at the country’s presidential palace. “This is not an enlargement like the previous one. We cannot wait another five years for the government and parliament to change. We have this very limited opportunity.”

Moldova was under Russian influence for decades after independence, and was run by governments and presidents loyal to Moscow, with their opponents failing to turn the country toward the West. That ended with Sandu’s shock victory in 2020, with the support of expatriates living in the EU.

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The referendum is about whether to amend Moldova’s constitution to enshrine in law the country’s goal of joining the European Union. Sandu, who called for the vote, faces his pro-Russian rival, Alexander Stoyangelo, in the presidential election on the same day.

Sandu’s support reached 36% in a recent opinion poll, compared to 10% for Stoyanoglu, who is supported by the Socialist Party. About 63% of participants supported joining the European Union. But about 22% are undecided.

Russia, which opposes Moldova’s western integration, has increased its efforts to influence the outcome, according to government and European Union officials. Earlier this year, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada accused Russia of interfering in Moldova’s presidential elections.

Moscow has repeatedly rejected the allegations as “Russophobia”, which Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova described as “an essential element of Moldova’s European project, which Moldovans are called to vote on in October.”

Dmitry Rebetsky, a 50-year-old engineer who campaigned for the Socialist Party, said Moldova needed access to the EU for business but nothing else. He accused Sandu and her government of living in an “alternate reality.”

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“We do not want to be friends with the European Union and fight Russia,” Rebetsky said while distributing leaflets in Chisinau. Echoing what was reported in Russian media, he said Moldova should reject what “they want to impose on us, such as standing against the Orthodox Church, holding gay parades, and the influence of gay people in schools.”

Moldova has received the green light from the European Union to begin membership talks with Ukraine. The soonest it could join the EU is 2030, with the biggest tasks being to tackle corruption, reform the judicial system and what Brussels calls “removing the oligarchy” in the country. In contrast to Ukraine, it is not looking to join NATO, as its neutrality is written into the constitution.

Indeed, about 70% of the country’s exports, mostly fruit and wine, go to the European Union, and the economy has grown again, driven in part by investment due to the prospect of EU membership. However, its per capita GDP is still less than half that of Bulgaria, the poorest country in the European Union.

Sandu’s decision to call a referendum before the conclusion of negotiations is intended to make it difficult for opponents to back away from the integration process. It’s a gamble: If the vote goes against it, the talks will be derailed.

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“2030 seems both very close and very far away,” said Olga Ruska, Sandu’s foreign policy adviser. “Too early because there is still so much to accomplish, and too far because we face six long years of relentlessly fighting Russian interference.”

In Chisinau, home to about a third of Moldova’s population, it’s easy to forget the division that runs through the country.

People sit in trendy cafes sipping coffee and tapping on laptops connected to free Wi-Fi. The tree-lined streets showcase modern architecture bordering grand Soviet-era buildings. Mixed in are pro-EU murals.

However, Moldova is also home to Transnistria, a breakaway region along the border with Ukraine that Russia has controlled for the past three decades in a dormant conflict. Then there is Gagauzia, an autonomous region south of Chisinau that supports Russia.

The government has been fighting Russian influence over its political process for years, according to Viorel Cernautino, Moldova’s police chief. He said that the matter is now more severe.

“At this time, a few weeks before the Brexit referendum, these Russian destabilizing activities have reached their peak,” Cernautino said in his crowded office in a suburb of Chisinau. “The schemes are becoming increasingly complex.”

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In front of him was a laptop displaying the efforts of Russian special services and pro-Russian oligarchs to bring in illegal funds and use them to spread disinformation, offer bribes, extort, and organize protests.

Moldovan authorities said this month that they had uncovered a Russian-backed operation involving 130,000 of its citizens aimed at influencing the vote. In September alone, $15 million was transferred from Russia to activists from the electoral bloc of fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor for use in disinformation and attacks against public institutions, according to Cernautino.

In another incident, several people were arrested in Chisinau after throwing paint on government buildings, according to a police report. The police said that the investigation revealed that they were a group of 20 young men who arrived from Moscow by plane via Türkiye.

Living so close to the war in Ukraine, many Moldovans are concerned about what will happen after the referendum – regardless of the outcome. As in the Baltics, there is a deep-rooted fear that Ukraine may be next in line.

“We have been facing Russian threats since World War II,” said Mariana Rova, an economist who heads the European Business Association. Her mother was born in Siberia after her grandparents were exiled during the Soviet era. “Whatever happened, it couldn’t be worse. Except of course if there was physical assault.

– With the help of Irina Velko.

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