Russia sent so many men to join its war in Ukraine, that crime levels in the country fell shortly after the invasion began. Now their comeback is unleashing a wave of abuse.
Crimes committed by soldiers not related to the war rose by more than 20% last year, according to data from the Russian Supreme Court. While the overall numbers are still small and many returning service members do not commit crimes, there has been a jump in cases of violent crimes as well as thefts and drug-related violations.
These figures do not include crimes involving tens of thousands of convicts who were released from prison to join the war under a program drawn up by the late leader of the Wagner mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin. Those who survived the six months at the front were able to obtain a pardon from President Vladimir Putin and return to Russia as free men.
“In prison, they are treated as if we are nothing, and then it gets worse at the front,” the Kazan-based sociologist said. Iskander Yasaviev. “The experience they come back with is a trauma that will play out over decades.”
Sociologists have long noticed this Crime levels Soldier numbers often rise after military conflicts end, and researchers have looked into many possible reasons for this, from social disruption to the trauma soldiers face. Russia is unlikely to buck that trend after Putin ordered the February 2022 invasion that sparked the biggest conflict in Europe since World War II. The return of the prisoners who fought for Wagner offers an early indication of what could be in store for the hundreds of thousands of men brutalized by the fighting who will return to civilian life.
While lower-level crimes have decreased, the number of homicides and sexual crimes, especially against children, has not decreased over the past two years. Indecent assaults against minors rose 62% compared to the pre-war period, according to Bloomberg calculations based on Supreme Court data.
The return of Wagner's recruits to Russia was a shock to townspeople and villages who found men they thought were serving long prison terms living among them. People convicted of murder, even CannibalismHe was among those who were pardoned.
Before his death in a plane crash after leading a failed mutiny against the Defense Ministry leadership in June last year, Prigozhin claimed that 32,000 convicts he had recruited had returned to Russia from the war.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded to widespread public discontent Says He told reporters in November that the criminals pardoned by Putin “are making atonement for their crimes on the battlefield with their blood.”
still Law The law that took effect in March quietly abolished the right to pardon after six months of service, forcing criminals who joined the army to remain in the army until the end of the war, like others who were conscripted into the army.
Yet they return, often by fleeing. Supreme Court data shows that crimes involving the military increased fourfold to 4,409 in 2023 compared to 2021.
One of the fugitives, Artyom, said he fled after half his team was killed by attacking forces during four months in Ukraine. The 34-year-old, who requested that his last name not be used, joined the army to escape harsh treatment in the prison colony where he was serving a sentence for drug smuggling. He said no one told him that the service would be indefinite.
The law that ended pardons also allows the Ministry of Defense to recruit not only convicts but also people in pretrial detention. Russia Behind Bars, a prisoner rights organization, estimates that up to 175,000 former prisoners have been taken to fight on the battlefield.
Alex Isakov, a Russian economist at Bloomberg Economics, said the post-war rise in crime could cost Russia up to 0.6% of its gross domestic product. He said that besides the direct costs on lives and property, the country would face increased spending on social welfare and security, especially on the police.
“From the Franco-Prussian War to the Global War on Terror, crime rates fall early in a war and rise sharply afterwards. Russia is unlikely to find escape from this pattern. Post-war crime costs may be as low as 0.2% of GDP The total if the conflict is settled in 2024 amounts to 0.6% of GDP, and if it continues for another five years and about 3 million Russians gain fighting experience, “the full cost of post-war rising crime rates is likely to be higher,” Isakov said Much.”
Keen to avoid a repeat of the September 2022 conscription of 300,000 reservists, which heightened public anxiety about the war, the Kremlin is instead relying on generous payouts to persuade men to join the army. Contract soldiers are offered monthly payments of 204,000 rubles ($2,300) plus signing bonuses that can reach 1 million rubles.
This helped reduce crime rates in the short term, especially in the Russian provinces. The decline in recorded crimes was three times greater in areas with high rates of military recruitment, compared to areas with only moderate levels, according to Bloomberg Economics estimates.
“Economic crimes such as theft and burglary associated with poverty have decreased, because the war has pumped money into the poorest areas and the poorest segments of the population,” says sociologist and criminologist Ekaterina Khudzaeva.
Russian courts last year handled nearly 62,000 fewer cases than in 2021, and the number of convicts fell by 2%. Police numbers also declined in many areas, suggesting that there were fewer police available to solve crimes, as people gave up their low-paying jobs for more lucrative military service.
Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev said in May that there was a shortfall of 152,000 officers across Russia, with one in four positions vacant in some regions.
This is likely to increase the challenges facing the authorities in reducing crime as increasing numbers of war convicts return to civilian life.
“Like any other veteran, they are likely to develop PTSD,” said Anna Kuleshova, a sociologist at the Social Foresight Group. “This is coupled with previous experience in prison, all of which combined can lead to difficulties integrating into society.”
