Starmer Sees Trump Comeback as a Warning About His Own UK Danger

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(Bloomberg) — Following talks about the immigration crackdown with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban at the European Political Community summit this week, broadcaster Keir Starmer allowed himself a rare, unguarded moment when he told Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni about his efforts to engage Labour lawmakers with his policies.

“These have been difficult conversations with my party,” Britain’s new centre-left prime minister, fresh from a landslide election victory two weeks ago, told his right-wing counterpart as they walked through the maze at Blenheim Palace. “Yes, I imagine,” she replied with a smile.

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The pair are unlikely allies, and it was strange to see Starmer, a former human rights lawyer, seem to enjoy Orbán’s jokes. Yet for the prime minister’s allies, there are lessons to be learned from both leaders – and Marine Le Pen in France and Donald Trump in the US – about what some senior Labour figures see as the main threat to their administration: the rise of the populist right across Europe and America, and the fear that it could be replicated in the UK.

While Starmer has been impressed and had positive conversations with his more natural allies Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz in Oxfordshire on Thursday, and with President Joe Biden at the NATO summit in Washington last week, his overarching goal is to avoid their conflicts at the hands of the political right, according to people close to him who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss private views.

That means a keen interest in Nigel Farage’s Reform Party, and the appeal Starmer has had in his previous campaign to disillusioned voters. “They are able to see things about our politics that many of us can’t,” Josh Simmons, a new MP close to Starmer, told an audience at a think tank’s summer event on Monday, with Chancellor Rachel Reeves in attendance.

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At Blenheim Palace, Starmer held talks with Orban, Meloni and others on how to stop migration at the source and in southern Europe.

Some of Starmer’s aides and cabinet members argue that a tough approach to immigration and crime – which right-wing parties typically prioritise – will be key to securing a second term, a sign that even the biggest parliamentary majority in a generation will not protect Labour from the risks of the next five years.

Those in Labour who share this view want Starmer to send asylum seekers to third countries for processing – something he hinted he was considering at his summit press conference on Thursday – and not be reluctant to link irregular migration to rising crime.

The strategy is to avoid creating a target for right-wing attacks, either by portraying her as overly liberal on social issues or keen to raise taxes to fund higher public spending – key demands among Labour’s base.

As one Starmer supporter said, there should be no leftward drift in his position after he campaigned from the political centre.

However, as Starmer’s letter to Meloni made clear, it will be difficult to convince his party.

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The main issue facing Starmer is the party’s impatience after 14 years in opposition, a period of turmoil that included Brexit and the pandemic. Pressure from Labour supporters on the prime minister to emulate Tony Blair in reshaping the economy – over more than a decade in power – is enormous.

The first clear sign of unrest is likely to come next week when some Labour MPs try to pressure him to boost social care for parents by removing the two-child cap on benefit payments.

Starmer said that despite his sympathy, strained public coffers would still not reach the £2.5bn that the Resolution Foundation estimates lifting the cap would cost. But the prime minister also launched a taskforce on child poverty last week and called on charities campaigning for the cap to be scrapped, a move that has led many to conclude he is likely to back down.

Starmer’s allies certainly say the chances of him losing any vote in Parliament are slim. He has a 180-seat majority, and an amendment on the issue may not even be picked up, and new Labour lawmakers have been reminded that an early rebellion would not go down well in 10 Downing Street.

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A government official described it as a test of manhood for the new administration, arguing that it could not be seen as having lost its first battle with the Labour left. Officials expressed frustration that the potential rebels had made it difficult for Starmer to raise the budget cap in the autumn without appearing weak, by moving so quickly.

Other Starmer allies have acknowledged he will need to make a significant contribution to his party to ensure unity, with what Reeves described as “difficult decisions” looming over the budget in an interview with Bloomberg this week.

One said the prime minister was determined to implement centre-left policies, pointing to the king’s speech on Wednesday in which he outlined plans to reform workers’ rights, renationalise railways and create a state-owned clean energy company.

However, the disagreement is reminiscent of the splits that have occurred in Starmer’s opposition team, between those who valued fiscal prudence and cautious policies to avoid alienating non-traditional Labour voters, and others who wanted more ambition.

The First Party won that battle with Starmer, most famously over the amount of green energy spending commitment in its election manifesto, and its supporters claim they have been vindicated by Labour’s big election win.

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In the early days of the new government, some old conflicts have resurfaced in the form of skirmishes over the appointment of advisers. This has caused some disagreements and must be resolved quickly and peacefully, one minister said.

As with environmental spending, it is not yet clear what direction Starmer will take. Some of his allies say his choice may determine whether his government can deliver the stability he has promised and avoid emulating the setbacks suffered by his progressive allies in Europe and across the Atlantic.

“We have seen the rise of populism and nationalism across Europe, America and elsewhere,” Starmer told Bloomberg last month. “It is vital that we emphasise that only progressive and democratic parties in government have the answers to the challenges they face.”

At Blenheim Palace, Johnson made clear he was still grappling with the threat. He said his talks with Meloni on immigration were the most important part of the summit, and praised his Conservative successor for building close ties with her.

“We are building on the relationship that Rishi Sunak has established, rather than starting in a different place,” he said.

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