Stock market forecasts are getting grimmer as recession risks loom. Here are the latest calls from Mike Wilson, Jeremy Grantham, Jeremy Siegel and other experts.

• Market experts, including Marko Kolanovic, Jeremy Siegel and Lisa Shalit, have warned that US stocks are entering a danger zone.

• Banking turmoil and the threat of a recession have led to some pessimistic market outlook lately.

• Below is a selection of the latest stock market forecasts from prominent investors, analysts, and other experts.

US stocks have made impressive gains so far in 2023 despite banking chaos and rising economic pessimism, surprising forecasters who took negative views at the start of the year.

And now, with the second quarter underway, experts are assessing the situation again and updating their forecasts to take into account a plethora of emerging risks – from the credit crunch and commercial real estate risks to looming financial sector jitters. risk of a recession.

JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanowicz, Morgan Stanley’s Lisa Shalit, and FS Investments’ Troy Gayeski are among those warning that US stocks are now entering danger territory, while Ed Yardeni thinks there is a lot of pessimism about the economy.

Below is a selection of the latest stock market forecasts from prominent investors, analysts, and other experts.

Jeremy Grantham, veteran investor

Likely the S&P 500 He is drowning Between 27% and 52% of his current level of 4,130 points, Grantham said in a recent interview.

“The best we can hope for is to get that market to about 3,000,” he said. “The worst we have to fear are over 2,000.”

Knowing that this may sound extreme, Grantham noted that the benchmark index touched 666 points in 2009, meaning that if it fell at 2,000 points this time, it would still have tripled over the past 14 years.

Troy Gayeski, Chief Market Strategist at FS Investments

The stock market is heading towards a sharp downturn that could see the S&P 500 index drop by about 22% over the coming quarters, and investors should start selling their holdings immediately, According to the Chief Market Strategist at FS Investments.

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Gaysky said during a recent episode of “What Goes Up” podcast. “This is a golden opportunity to use this bear market rally to de-risk before very painful losses occur over the next six, nine or twelve months.”

Marko Kolanovic, Chief Market Strategist at JPMorgan

The stock market underestimates the risk of a recession this year, and even a minor recession would cause stocks to fall 15% or more from current levels, According to JPMorgan.

“On the downside, even a mild recession will warrant a retest of previous lows and result in a 15%+ drop,” strategists led by Kolanovic wrote in a note dated April 17. “So we maintain a defensive bias in our model portfolio this month, unchanged from last month, with lower equity and higher cash weight.”

Jeremy Siegel, Wharton Professor

In his speech, Siegel warned that the banking turmoil threatens the broader economy and that stocks are poised to decline in the coming weeks. Interpretation of the tree of wisdom this week. The author of “Stocks for the Long Run” warned that the market could be close to peaking if investors follow the popular investment adage and “sell in May and go away.”

“I can see more pressure in the short term,” he wrote. “For now, it remains prudent to have a cautious near-term outlook on stocks, but I remain very optimistic over the longer term.”

Lisa Shalit, Chief Investment Officer (Wealth Management) at Morgan Stanley

“The bear market rally in stocks continues, yet a lot of the good news about the Fed rate hike, headline inflation easing and real interest rates falling has been discounted.” I wrote in a note on Monday.

“With so much optimism, particularly regarding the sustainability of the low interest rates that underpin extreme valuations, we are entering a dangerous phase.”

Mike Wilson, Chief US Equity Strategist, Morgan Stanley

Investors are heading for disappointment amid the continued rally in the stock market because earnings forecasts are overly optimistic, According to Wilson.

“If there’s one thing that can throw cold water on the huge cap rally it’s higher yields because of the Fed that can’t stop walking as soon as some investors predict…we think the recent crash in Broadband is the market’s way of warning us that we Far from out of the woods with this bear market.”

Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research

Certainly not everyone is a stock market pessimist.

Investors may lose potential gains in the stock market if they are too concerned about the US economy, which is likely to avoid a full recession, With the S&P 500 about to enter a bull market, Yardeni said.

“I’ve been among the bulls, especially in late October… I thought there was quite a bit of pessimism… in some of the market sentiment surveys, about as much pessimism as we saw in March of 2009. And sure, things are certainly not close. from this bad CNBC on monday.

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