Written by Ankika Biswas and Pranav Kashyap
(Reuters) – Just days before the U.S. presidential election scheduled for Nov. 5, investors are trying to gauge how stock markets will react as opinion polls and betting platforms point to a close race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
Harris’ lead over the Republican narrowed to one percentage point in the final stretch of the presidential race, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll published on Tuesday.
A majority of the ten analysts Reuters spoke to expect that Trump’s return will boost stock markets, and some prefer a divided government.
Cryptocurrency and small-cap stocks rose in the run-up to the election.
Todd Morgan, president of Bel Air Investment Advisors, said Trump’s pledge to cut corporate taxes and reduce regulation could boost markets in the short term if he wins.
On the other hand, Trump promised to double trade tariffs, especially against China, and “eliminate all unspent funds” under the climate law signed by Biden-Harris that includes hundreds of billions of dollars in subsidies for electric cars, solar energy and others. Clean energy technologies.
A divided Congress may be the best outcome because it limits what the president can accomplish and spend, according to Brian Klimke, chief market strategist at Cetera Investment Management.
Here is a list of stocks and sectors that could move based on the election results:
Banks: A Trump win or Republican sweep could lift Wall Street banks like JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), and Wells Fargo (WFC) thanks to improved local investing, looser regulation, local job additions and tax cuts, Bank Of America. Analysts said.
However, concerns about the wider trade deficit and tariffs are negative for the sector.
Beneficiaries of M&A include Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), Lazard (LAZ), and Evercore (EVR) amid a more lenient approach to antitrust enforcement.
encryption: A more “receptive” regulatory approach to digital assets under a Trump win could benefit cryptocurrency stocks, according to TD Cowen analysts who highlighted the possibility of the former president appointing a pro-crypto SEC chief.
MicroStrategy (MSTR), Riot Platforms (RIOT), MARA Holdings (MARA), Hut 8 (HUT), and Bit Digital (BTBT) rose between 3.4% and 45% in October.
energyMorgan Stanley analysts believe a Trump presidency could prioritize reducing the regulatory burden on domestic oil and gas production, while considering the possibility of imposing more restrictive trade policies.
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