Unlock the Editor’s Digest for free
Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.
UK prime minister Rishi Sunak is confronting mounting political pressure to cut Britain’s reliance on foreign workers after net immigration hit a record 745,000 last year despite years of Conservative pledges to cut immigration.
The Office for National Statistics said on Thursday that net immigration for 2022 was 139,000 higher than it had previously estimated, noting a big post-pandemic increase in people from outside the EU coming to the country for work.
Former home secretary Suella Braverman called the figures a “slap in the face to the British public who have voted to control and reduce migration at every opportunity”.
A caucus of right-wing Tories warned Sunak that cutting net migration was a “do or die” issue ahead of the election expected next year, while Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said the numbers were “shockingly high”.
The ONS said there were some signals that immigration was now beginning to fall, with net migration for the 12 months to June at 672,000, rather than the last calendar year’s total of 745,000.
“While it is too early to say if this is the start of a new downward trend, these more recent estimates indicate a slowing of immigration coupled with increasing emigration,” it added.
But the statistics agency noted that the rise in immigration has already led to the fastest population growth in England and Wales for more than 60 years. The countries’ population rose 1 per cent from mid-2022 to 60.2mn a year later, the fastest increase since 1962.
The ONS said that 1.2mn people immigrated long-term to the UK during the 12 months to June 2023, of whom almost 1mn were non-EU nationals, while emigration totalled 508,000.
It added that the increase in non-EU immigration was largely because of migrants coming for work, in particular in the health and care sectors, and bringing increasing numbers of dependants with them.
Thirty-nine per cent of non-EU immigrants — the biggest cohort — came to the UK to study, the same proportion as the previous year.
Starmer said that a “huge increase in work visas” that led to Thursday’s figures “shows the government hasn’t done what it needs to do on skills”.
The Conservatives’ last election manifesto promised to use less cheap migrant labour and reduce net immigration from its 2019 level of 226,000 — since when the total figure has more than trebled.
That sharp rise has piled pressure on the new home secretary James Cleverly, who is preparing measures to reduce worker visas. Possible steps include increasing the salary threshold of skilled workers and limiting the number of dependants that foreign care workers can bring with them.
However, businesses are calling for visa rules to allow them to hire more freely in sectors facing chronic labour shortages.
Paul Dales, at the consultancy Capital Economics, said the strong inflows were “encouraging” since “the UK’s shortage of labour since the pandemic has held down economic growth and boosted inflation”.
The impact of Brexit was highlighted by the increase in the net immigration of non-EU nationals from 179,000 in the 12 months to June 2019 to 768,000 in the period ending in June this year.
By contrast, more EU citizens left the UK than entered it in the 12 months to June, with the net emigration figure for EU nationals at 87,000.
The Home Office and many independent economists say net immigration is likely to slow in future, as students complete courses and go home and a post-Covid rebound in cross-border movement eases.
However, the ONS said migrants were now likely to stay in the UK for longer than in the past, and that students and skilled workers were also bringing more dependants than before.
The Office for Budget Responsibility, the independent watchdog, said this week that rising emigration and a recent tightening of visa rules were likely to lead to lower net inflows in the future, with long-term net migration settling at around 245,000.
Additional reporting by Valentina Romei
