Taiwan needs Elon Musk’s Starlink or something like it in case China invades. Here’s why it’s looking elsewhere

And with tensions rising with Asia’s largest economy, Taiwan’s government is trying to boost the island’s communications, traveling around the world to find a low-orbit satellite system that could support communications in the event of a malfunction.

Elon Musk and his Starlink network is one obvious solution, but there are some problems, not least of which is Taiwan’s mistrust of the billionaire, given his deep business ties to China and pro-Beijing comments.

The Taiwanese company and SpaceX began exploratory talks about the satellite supply chain in 2019, but in early 2022, the amicable tenor of these talks changed. Space Exploration Technologies Corp., as it is formally known as SpaceX, and its representatives in Taiwan have begun urging government officials to change a law that requires any telecommunications joint venture to have at least 51% local majority ownership, according to two officials who participated in the meetings. They said that this insistence made Taiwan wary.

SpaceX, which owns and operates Starlink, paid 100%, arguing that Musk wanted to own the company outright because that’s how he runs his business around the world, the people said, asking not to be identified because the discussions were private. In fact, in China, the most important market for Tesla Inc. Outside the United States, the electric automaker entirely owns its factory in Shanghai, an anomaly in a country where other foreign automakers must have local partners.

The pressure also came with an ultimatum: unless Taiwan agreed to change its ownership rules, the island would get no deal at all.

SpaceX did not respond to multiple requests for comment over the course of weeks. Wu Zong ZongThe island’s National Science and Technology Council minister, which spearheads Taiwan’s science, technology and space development, said Taiwan is not yet “planning to adjust the rules,” though he added that SpaceX would be welcome if there was a mutual compromise.

While the talks have now broken down — SpaceX officials haven’t spoken to Taiwanese government officials since September — Taiwan’s vulnerability, along with Musk’s large financial stakes in China, still plays a big role on many people’s minds.

Read more: How Musk Launched a Race to Send Satellites to “Low Earth Orbit”: QuickTake

Senior US officials confirmed as recently as February that the US believes China wants it military to be able to invade Taiwan by 2027, although Taiwanese officials have downplayed the threat of invasion and there is no indication that China is preparing for war.

In February, the region received a preview of what that might look like, when two internet cables lay under the sea near the Taiwan-controlled Matsu Islands. They made boats Chinese flags fly. About 14,000 residents spent more than 50 days with agonizingly slow internet before Taiwan could fix the cables.

Taiwan would need to prepare to withstand a more comprehensive assault on its digital lifelines in the event of war with China, according to military historian David Selby, director of teaching and learning at Cornell University in Washington, DC.

He said, “You can’t fight a conventional war if you can’t communicate with your forces via satellite communications.”

To address this weakness, the Taiwanese Space Agency (TASA) intends to launch its first self-made low-Earth orbit communications satellite in 2026 and at least one more by 2028, Director General Woo Jung Shin He said. He added in an interview that Taiwan will also have missiles capable of carrying payloads weighing more than 100 kilograms.

“Taiwan’s vision is to launch its own domestic rocket with a home-made satellite, with home-made ground equipment and a constellation of satellites,” he said. “Through this, we can protect our country.”

Since 2019, the agency has operated six weather satellites in low Earth orbit through the Formosat-7 program, a partnership with US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

However, even Wu of the NSTC admits that for Taiwan to build a minimum constellation of around 20 to 30 communications satellites, it would need “help from international companies or Taiwan’s private sector”.

This kind of scale is required because while newer constellations are in low Earth orbit such as those deployed by SpaceX, which travel on high From about 340 miles (550 kilometers) away, it can provide faster Internet access than satellites in higher orbits, and low-Earth orbit networks need more satellites to ensure a steady signal as it moves across the sky.

He said larger numbers also provide safety Mark MatossianFounder of Efficient Frontier Space, a Silicon Valley consulting firm. He said targeting one satellite would not be enough because “it’s gone in a few minutes and there are more to come”. Matossian said that while China demonstrated its anti-satellite capabilities in 2007 by using a missile to destroy one of its satellites, destroying an entire low Earth orbit constellation would be much more difficult.

This makes SpaceX an obvious partner. The company now has more than 4300 Satellites in orbit and have a regulatory consent to launch up to 12,000.

Starlink’s effectiveness was highlighted last year after Russia invaded Ukraine and sought to bring the country offline.

The United States and several allies have accused Russian state hackers of disrupting satellite modems belonging to telecommunications company Viasat Inc. Remotely, disrupting the Internet for thousands of Ukrainians and disrupting communications at a critical moment. On February 26, 2022, Ukrainian officials turned to Musk and tweeted to him for help. within 12 hours answeredsaying that Starlink is now active in Ukraine, and more terminals are on the way.

“This was a game-changer,” said Ilya Vityuk, head of the cyber and information security department at the Security Service of Ukraine. “Starlink was vital not only to our military, but also to our civilians,” he said Tell CipherBrief Podcast May.

Starlink’s performance in Ukraine has also caught the attention of Chinese military analysts.

In April last year, the Beijing Institute of Tracking and Telecommunications published The report acknowledges that the satellite system would create “a significant challenge to our current situational awareness and conventional defense capabilities.”

in comments In the Financial Times published in October, Musk said that Beijing had “made it clear that it does not agree” with Starlink being floated in Ukraine to help the military circumvent Russia’s internet cuts. He added that Beijing had asked for assurances that he would not sell the service in China.

This kind of volatility in China worries politicians in Taiwan and abroad.

“If I were from China, I would ask Elon Musk to control all satellite receivers in Taiwan. If I can control it, I can turn it off in an emergency,” Herming Chiu, Taiwan’s vice minister of digital affairs, said. “This is my point. Because we know China better than anyone else.”

Lincoln HaynesThe Chinese space expert and assistant professor at the US Air War College in Montgomery, Alabama, agrees that Taiwan has cause for concern.

Can Taiwan really count on Elon Musk’s goodwill in a crisis? This is a position that not many countries would like to be in.

Taiwan may also pursue military options with the United States and other allies. The territory’s defense ministry told Bloomberg that the military has “multiple backups, with satellite as one measure,” but added that it does not “comment on specifics of war preparations.”

With any deal with Starlink in limbo, officials are looking at other alternatives, including a search for a workaround to ownership laws.

In September, the territory’s Ministry of Digital Affairs announced a proof-of-concept program that will allow satellite providers to operate in Taiwan on an emergency basis, without the need to set up a new company or adhere to local ownership requirements.

Taiwan’s government has opened the program to all satellite providers, according to Digital Affairs Minister Audrey Tang. Wu, of the National Science and Technology Council, said SpaceX has not shown interest.

Regardless, Tang said her goal remains to have 700 satellite receivers installed in and around Taiwan, using “multiple” satellite providers to avoid a single point of failure.

To this end, Tang and other officials have traveled to the United States and the United Kingdom over the past year to meet with sellers.

Tang said the ministry is in discussions with Project Kuiper, Amazon.com’s satellite company and London-based OneWeb, which have also expressed interest. OneWeb plans to offer some coverage to Taiwan by the end of the year.

Meanwhile, domestic electronics giant Foxconn Technology Group, best known as maker of Apple Inc., said Chairman Yong Liu, chairman of the board. iPhones, expects to launch its first communications satellite into low Earth orbit in the fourth quarter.

Space development is one of the top priorities of President Tsai Ing-wen.

Its government pledged in 2019 to invest NT$25.1 billion ($803 million) in the sector over the next decade. About 46 Taiwanese companies are already in the supply chain for Starlink and other global operators, and the region aims to increase the output value of its space industry to NT$1 trillion by 2029, from NT$216 billion last year, according to TASA.

Some companies focus on going deeper into space. Taipei-based Lung Hwa Electronics, which has a partnership with Hughes Network Systems LLC, received approval in April for Provides satellite service in Taiwan via a geosynchronous satellite, which usually orbits 37,000 km above the equator.

“Taiwan really needs satellites because of the weakness of undersea cables,” said Sharon Wang, CEO of Lung Hwa Electronics.

However, Taiwan faces hurdles in its satellite communications backup plan. Wu, general manager of TASA, said that approximately 120 satellites will be needed in low Earth orbit to ensure continuous coverage. This is much more than what his agency expects to release in the coming years.

Another bottleneck is the lack of rockets capable of carrying satellites into space. There are no local options, despite the startup Taiwan Innovative Space Inc. It expects to make a third missile launch attempt in the coming months.

Last November, Tassa announce Arianespace SA launch in March for Triton, Taiwan’s first home-made weather satellite. However, a failed launch of Arianespace in December set that plan back, and TASA now hopes to be able to get Triton into orbit next month.

Even well-funded companies can experience setbacks. Virgin Orbit Holdings Inc. Inc., backed by billionaire Richard Branson, filed for bankruptcy after suffering a major launch fiasco in January.

This is one reason Wang of Lung Hwa Electronics believes Taiwan needs to hedge its bets rather than commit deeply to homegrown solutions. Her company spent six years building its space business, which required large amounts of technology, capital, and talent.

“Homegrown farming is a goal for every country, but what matters is how fast you can achieve it,” she said. “We must use the strength of others to shorten the required time.”

— with assistance from Lauren Grosch.