© Reuters. FILE SOURCE: Election workers prepare ahead of the upcoming general elections in Bangkok, Thailand, May 13, 2023.
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by Panarat Thepgumpanat and Panu Wongcha-um
BANGKOK (Reuters) – Thailand’s progressive opposition took an early lead in a preliminary vote count on Sunday, with a significant lead over conservative parties allied with a military that has been at the heart of government for nearly a decade.
The Election Commission’s election tally showed the populist Pheu Thai Party, which with its previous incarnations had won every election since 2001, led in the early stages of the count along with another opposition party, Move Forward, with a quarter of the eligible votes. calculated.
Sunday’s election pits Move Forward and Pheu Tai of the billionaire Shinawatra family against ruling parties backed by a nexus of old money, conservatives and generals with influence over key institutions involved in two decades of turmoil in Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy.
The polling station was expected to announce its preliminary election results later in the evening.
The vote count showed Phumjaithai, a provincial party and coalition member, in third place, ahead of the military-backed Palang Pracharat Party and Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha’s United Thai Nation Party, which seized power in a 2014 coup.
Opposition gains will not bring any guarantees that either party will rule, despite it being an alliance, due to the parliamentary rules put in place by the military after the 2014 coup that tilt in its favour.
The election of the prime minister and the formation of the government requires the support of a majority of the House of Representatives and the Senate combined, and analysts expect weeks of bargaining before forming alliances and choosing a prime minister.
The upper house is appointed by the military junta and is expected to vote for parties or blocs aligned with the military.
Democratic Front first
Real estate tycoon Sritha Thavasin, one of Pheu Thai’s prime ministerial candidates, said it was early days but the party was optimistic it would prevail.
“We remain confident that when we have all the votes, we will still have progress,” he told reporters.
When asked about “moving forward”, about the possibility of forming an alliance and who he would contact, Sritha said: “Pro-democracy parties first”.
Still hugely popular among Thailand’s working class, Pheu Thai relies on nostalgia for cheap health care, community loans and a slew of subsidies, which put it back in power after toppling three of its four governments.
The Move Forward movement has seen a late rise in the polls and has been banking on young people – including 3.3 million first-time voters – who have turned aggressively in support of its liberal agenda, including plans to break up monopolies, weaken the military’s political role and amend a tough law on royal insults. Critics say it is used to suppress dissent.
Move Forward leader Peta Limjaronrat, in a press conference, ruled out any alliance with the military-backed parties, which he predicted would not be able to stay in power.
“The result is clear that there is little chance of forming a minority government,” he said.
It’s not yet certain what partnerships might emerge, said Prinya Thewanarumitkul, associate professor at Thammasat University School of Law.
“We can say that Pheu Thai will lead the government, but which party will he choose?” Brenya said.
