The CHF is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the NA session begins

The CHF is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the North American session begins.The USD is mostly lower to start the trading day.

Overnight, Australian employment change showed -6.6K versus 7.2K. However, the unemployment rate was less than expectations at 3.8 cents versus 3.9% expected, but was up from last month’s 3.7% The AUDUSD is modestly higher in trading today, but has found willing sellers near the topside swing area target:

Last night in Japan, BOJ policymaker Asahi Noguchi highlighted the mixed impacts of a weaker yen, noting that while some large firms have benefited, it poses broader economic challenges. Noguchi expressed increasing confidence in reaching the BOJ’s 2% inflation target but remained cautious about the pace of future interest rate hikes, emphasizing that they would depend on economic data. He also discussed the potential prolonged effects of yen weakness on wages and prices, which must be considered in monetary policy decisions. Despite the potential for future rate hikes, Noguchi did not commit to any specific actions for the remainder of the year, indicating uncertainty in the immediate monetary policy path.

The USDJPY moved lower in the Asian session and tested the 38.2% of the last trend move higher at 153.94 at session lows before rebounding back higher. The price is also back above its rising 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below) at 154.153 after dipping below that MA on the fall. If the sellers are to “win” vs the buyers, they need to get and stay below the 38.2% of the last move higher at the minimum. If they cannot do that, the sellers are simply not winning.

On the economic calendar today, the weekly US jobless claims (215K est. vs 211K last week), Philly Fed business index (2.3 vs 3.2 last month), existing home sales (4.20M units vs 4.38M annualized last month) and leading index (which was actually positive in the prior month after a string of negative readings), will all be released today.

Looking at the Fedspeak ahead of the quiet period which will begin tomorrow after the close:

• Fed Gov. Bowman will be speaking at 9:05 AM ET
• NY Fed Pres. Williams will speak at 9:15 AM ET
• Atlanta Fed Pres. Bostic will speak at 11 AM ET
• Atlanta Fed Pres. Bostic will also speak at 5:45 PM just in case he forgot to remind us that the Fed policy will likely be delayed

Looking at other speakers today, ECBs di Guindos and ECBs Schnabel will both be speaking. ECBs di Guindos spoke earlier today and said it would be appropriate to loosen restrictive policy if inflation conditions are met.

Geopolitical news as us reportedly agreeing to back an Israeli operation in Rafah return for Israel not conducting a major strike on Iran. Report to the was a large movement of Israeli armored vehicles near the outskirts of the city of Rafah. There were other reports that Israel is unlikely to carry out an retaliatory attack against Iran before Passover. So the Middle East is heating up a bit today.

TSMC announced earnings which beat expectations, but its stock is still lower in pre-market trading (trading down $2.04 or -1.47% at $137):

Performance:

• Net Profit: Increased by 9%, BEAT market expectations.
• Revenue: Rose 16.5% annually, influenced by high demand in AI.

Factors Contributing to Performance:

• Increased AI Demand: Helped counteract reduced demand from pandemic-era electronics.
• Comparative Year Factor: Last year’s weak chip demand created a lower comparison base, aiding this year’s significant growth.

Summary: TSMC BEAT market expectations with strong first-quarter results driven by burgeoning AI demand and a favorable year-over-year comparison.

Netflix will report its earnings after the close. Intuitive surgical loss will report their earnings later today.

US stocks are trading higher in premarket trading, yields are near unchanged on crude oil’s lower, gold is moving back to the upside.

A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins currently shows.:

• Crude oil is trading down one dollar or -1.23% at $81.67. At this time yesterday, the price was at $84.80
• Gold is trading up by $22.29 or 0.95% at $2382.41. At this time yesterday, the price was higher at $2387.80.
• Silver is trading up $0.23 or 0.83% at $28.43. At this time yesterday, the price was at $28.46
• Bitcoin currently trades at $62,800 – not far off of the level at this time yesterday. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $62,846

In the premarket, the US major indices are trading higher:

• Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a gain of 89 points. Yesterday, the index fell -45.6 points or -0.12% at 37753.32
• S&P futures are implying a gain of 12.54 points. Yesterday, the index fell -29.18 points or -0.58% at 5022.22
• Nasdaq futures are implying a gain of 63.88 points. Yesterday, the index fell -181.88 points or -1.15% at 15683.37

The European indices are trading higher:

• German DAX, +0.06%
• France CAC , was 0.43%
• UK FTSE 100, +0.26
• Spain’s Ibex, +0.80%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.22% (delayed 10 minutes)

Shares in the Asian Pacific markets were mostly higher:

• Japan’s Nikkei 225, +0.31%
• China’s Shanghai Composite Index, +0.09%
• Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index, +0.82%
• Australia S&P/ASX index, +0.48%

Looking at the US debt market, yields are near unchanged.

• 2-year yield 4.931%, +0.7 basis points at this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.964%
• 5-year yield 4.615%, -0.2 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.674%
• 10-year yield 4.584%, unchanged. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.651%
• 30-year yield 4.699%, unchanged. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.757%

Looking at the treasury yield curve spreads moved more inverted:

• The 2-10 year spread is at -35.6 basis points. At this time Friday, the spread was at -31.1 basis points
• The 2-30 year spread is at -24.2 basis points. At this time Friday, the spread was at -20.8 basis points

European benchmark 10-year yields are lower: