Not only is Biden not planning to withdraw, Biden remains committed to holding a second debate in September, CNBC reported early today, citing an adviser. Other reports say there is no pressure from his government to resign.
To be clear, the decision is his alone, and to have a viable nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris would also have to drop out. That doesn’t look like it’s going to happen, and the market is betting that it will lead to a strong Republican sweep of the House, Senate and the White House.
Previously, there were many scenarios in which Trump could win but lose the House of Representatives or win it by a small majority of seats. Likewise, he can only get one or two additional votes in the Senate.
Alternatively, if Biden and the Democrats were eliminated, that would leave Republicans unopposed, and would pave the way for corporate tax cuts, deficit cuts, and aggressive regulatory changes. Now, that could also lead to some real trade uncertainty, but if you look at the broad Republican agenda, it’s certainly I’m a pro-stock market and I’m not sure you would want to price anything else, at least at this point. However, if you like it, here are 7 concrete trading ideas from Jim Cramer if Trump wins.
To be fair, there are several cross-currents here including good inflation numbers in both the PCE report and UMich’s inflation forecast. There is also the usual uncertainty at the end of the month and a positive July season.
But I’m taking it at face value as the S&P 500 climbs above 5500 for the first time.
SPX daily index
