Trump Media soars to $10 billion market cap, overtaking the value of X, which has hundreds of millions more users

Thanks to the stock price surge in the final days before the election, the market capitalization of Trump Media and Technology Group (TMTG) has now surpassed that of Elon Musk’s Company X. I took private In October 2022. In late September, TMTG stock remained at an all-time low of $12.15. Since then, the stock price has risen 345% as Trump’s political prospects have improved.

Now, TMTG’s market capitalization is about $10.8 billion compared to X’s estimated value of $9.4 billion. The market capitalization of Company X was calculated based on the value of the Fidelity investment quote In the reveal Forms Submitted in September.

Much of the trading on TMTG has been disconnected from its financial performance; Instead, TMTG shares appear to rise and fall with the Trump campaign’s political outlook. The disconnect between stock price and business performance led to TMTG being called a meme stock. In fact, TMTG’s finances have sunk into hundreds of millions in losses and negligible revenues. In the second quarter of this year, revenue was only $837,000. During the first half of 2024, the company recorded losses of $344 million.

TMTG doesn’t report any user metrics, so it’s hard to know exactly how many people are on Truth Social, but earlier this year, the company’s daily active users were It’s down to only about 76,000According to Sameweb data. Meanwhile, X has hundreds of millions of users, at least 250 million daily, according to March statistics. However, its exact numbers are also difficult to determine because X is no longer a publicly listed company.

The election close led to a flurry of trading activity for TMTG shares. In mid-October, the stock had its biggest two trading weeks ever with 472 million shares changing hands during that period. Many buyers appear to be momentum traders eager to jump on a stock’s rupture and profit from it for themselves. While it’s certainly a legitimate reason to buy any security, it’s not exactly a testament to belief in the underlying fundamentals of the company itself.

Trump and Musk, owners of Truth Social and X, respectively, may be social media rivals in the tech world, but they are very much allies in the political arena. Musk was a vocal supporter of Trump throughout the campaign, appearing with him regularly, praising his courage in the wake of two assassination attempts, and saying the US was “doomed” if Trump lost.

The rise in TMTG shares coincided with the recent rise in expectations regarding Trump, the presidential candidate. Despite the very tight and seemingly tied race, a set of recent polls show Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris. Prediction markets also have Trump as the favorite. However, the odds on at least one site – Polymarket – may have changed due to the betting activity of a small number of individuals who bet millions of dollars on Trump to win. It appears that a major bettor in France bet $45 million on Trump winning the election through four separate accounts.

A large portion of Trump’s personal net worth is tied to his ownership stake in TMTG. As the largest individual shareholder in TMTG, Trump owns about 57% of the company, worth about $6.1 billion. Trump’s total wealth ranges between $7.5 billion and $10 billion, according to a report Wall Street Journal.