Ukraine has just achieved a diplomatic victory. Now the country is under pressure to pursue a military victory.
After the G7 summit in Hiroshima, the focus will once again return to the brutal realities of the war in eastern Ukraine. The diplomatic and military support given to Volodymyr Zelensky at the G7 summit was a huge boost for the Ukrainian president. But the danger is that it could be remembered as a high water mark of international support for Ukraine.
The Ukrainians know that the best way to maintain Western support is to make dramatic advances on the battlefield. But the Russian claims that they finally took control of the hotly contested and largely ruined city of Bakhmut underscores just how difficult it was.
There was no hint of such international pressure on Zelensky Statement Issued by G7. The group used the familiar formula that they would support Ukraine “as long as it takes”. But the informal message is a bit more sophisticated: “As long as it takes. But it would be better if it didn’t take long.”
This sense of urgency reflects no lack of sympathy for Ukraine in major Western governments. Instead, there is concern that if the long-awaited Kiev counter-offensive fails to turn the tide on the battlefield, it will be difficult for the state’s backers to maintain the current level of political, financial and logistical support.
The growing pressure on Ukraine is closely related to the 2024 US presidential election. The emergence of Donald Trump as the Republican frontrunner increases the fear that the next US president will radically change his policy towards Ukraine. Trump has splurge that he could end the war in one day, which is a somewhat different message than “as long as it takes”.
Even a Trump-led presidential campaign is likely to clearly undermine America’s bipartisan consensus on Ukraine. All kinds of arguments against supporting Kiev — from the costs of war to the risks of escalation — will be presented. U.S. polls already show some drop In support of Ukraine.
All this gives Vladimir Putin reason to hope that if he can keep Russia fighting for another 18 months, Trumpian cavalry may appear on the horizon. The Kremlin is already flirting hard with the former US president and his supporters. Latest Russian list of sanctioned Americans includes People who have nothing to do with Ukraine but are on Trump’s unofficial list of domestic enemies — like Brad Raffensperger, an official who resisted Trump’s pleas to “find” him more votes in Georgia.
Given that the United States provides most of Ukraine’s military support, positions in Washington are crucial. And the shift in the political climate in the United States will inevitably spill over into Europe. The turmoil in the energy market caused by the war has already led European countries to this spend About 800 billion euros in energy subsidies. Economic discontent may translate into growing support for populist parties on the far right and far left sympathetic to Russia.
Then there is the matter of gun supplies. Both the United States and Europe have emptied stocks of related munitions, such as artillery shells, in their efforts to maintain supplies to Ukraine. Without a transition to a wartime economy, Western arms factories cannot keep up with the pace of battle. The fighting was so intense that, in the words of one Western politician, “Ukrainians consume in hours what we produce in weeks.” Western national security officials have had to work with arms dealers–circling around world capitals, from Seoul to Islamabad–to mobilize new supplies of missiles and other weapons to send to the front.
The United States and the Europeans believe that their efforts have succeeded and that Ukraine now has enough weapons to launch a serious attack. But the West’s armory now looks completely bare. It won’t be fully refurbished by 2024 – though by then the Ukrainians should be able to field the fighter jets they promised last week.
Ukraine’s current counteroffensive will likely begin quietly with a series of investigative missions that will look for weaknesses in the Russian line. But the extent of these Russian vulnerabilities remains the “well-known unknown” of the war.
Some Western officials, who have worked closely with Kiev, believe the Ukrainians have a good chance of breaking through Russian lines and threatening Crimea. Others warn that the Russians are involved – and that inexperienced Ukrainian forces may struggle to gain ground. Pessimists fear that if the war continues to stalemate next year, Putin may be able to muster hundreds of thousands of fresh troops for the next phase of the conflict. Although the Ukrainians have higher morale and better tactics, Russia has a larger pool of potential soldiers.
But even if Ukraine fails to make a breakthrough, and Western support for Keef begins to falter, that will not be the end of it. Ukrainian officials point out that, unlike their Western backers, they will never have the luxury of distancing themselves from conflict. Dmytro Kuleba, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, likes to quote a saying attributed to John Lennon: “Everything will be fine in the end. If it’s not okay, it’s not the end.”
gideon.rachman@ft.com
