UN climate talks to focus on money to help poor nations cut carbon pollution

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BAKU, Azerbaijan (AP) — An elaborate two-week international poker game is being held on climate change. Risks? Just the fate of an ever-warming world.

Reducing and dealing with the worsening temperatures, floods, droughts and storms caused by climate change will cost trillions of dollars, and poor countries do not have it, many reports and experts estimate. As UN climate negotiations begin Monday in Baku, Azerbaijan, the key issue is who should step up to help poor countries, especially the amount of aid.

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The numbers are huge. The floor in negotiations is the $100 billion a year that poor countries will receive — based on a classification made in the 1990s — as part of a 2009 agreement that has barely been met. Many experts and poor countries say the need is $1 trillion annually or more.

“It’s a high-stakes game,” said Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, a physicist. “Right now, the fate of the planet depends largely on what we can achieve in the next five or 10 years.”

But this year’s talks, known as COP29, will not be as high-profile as last year’s talks, with 48 heads of state scheduled to speak. The leaders of the two most carbon polluting countries – China and the United States – will be absent. But if financial negotiations fail in Baku, it will hamper the 2025 climate negotiations, experts say.

Not only is the handling of money always a sensitive topic, but two of the rich countries that are expected to donate money to poor countries – the United States and Germany – are now in the midst of radical government changes. Although the US delegation will be from the Biden administration, the re-election of Donald Trump, who downplays climate change and dislikes foreign aid, makes it unlikely that US pledges will be fulfilled.

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The key issue is climate finance. Without this, experts say that the world will not be able to control global warming, and most countries will not be able to achieve their current goals to reduce carbon pollution or the new goals that they will present next year.

“If we don’t solve the financing problem, we certainly won’t solve the climate problem,” said Pablo Vieira, a former Colombian deputy climate minister, who heads the support unit of the NDC Partnership, which helps countries meet emissions reduction targets.

Vieira and several other experts said countries can’t cut carbon pollution if they can’t get rid of coal, oil and gas. He said poor countries are frustrated because they are being asked to do more to combat climate change when they cannot afford to do so. The poorest 47 countries produce only 4% of heat-causing gases in the air, according to the United Nations.

About 77% of heat-causing gases in the atmosphere now come from the rich countries of the G20, many of which are now working to reduce pollution, something that is not happening in most poor countries or China.

“Today’s rich countries are getting rich by polluting the Earth,” said Ani Dasgupta, president of the World Resources Institute.

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The money being discussed is for three things: helping poor countries transition from dirty fossil fuels to clean energy; helping them adapt to the impacts of a warming world such as sea level rise and worsening storms; Compensating vulnerable poor countries for damage caused by climate change.

“If the international community fails to reach a (financing) target, this is really just signing a death sentence for many developing countries,” said Chukwumirije Okereke, director of the Center for Climate Change and Development in Nigeria.

Michael Wilkins, a business professor who heads Imperial College’s Center for Climate Finance and Investment in the UK, said total climate financing since 2022 was about $1.5 trillion. But he said that only 3% of this amount is actually directed towards the least developed countries.

“The Global South has been let down time and again by unfulfilled pledges and commitments,” said Sunita Narain, director general of the New Delhi-based Center for Science and Environment.

“Finance is really the key ingredient that forces all kinds of climate action,” said Bahamian climate scientist Adele Thomas, director of adaptation at the Natural Resources Defense Council. “Without this funding, there is little that developing countries in particular can do.”

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Thomas and others said this is a matter of self-interest and justice. It is not charity to help poor countries decarbonize because rich countries benefit when all countries reduce emissions. Ultimately, a warming world hurts everyone.

Compensating for climate damage and helping countries prepare for future damage is a matter of justice, Thomas said. Although they have not caused the problem, poor countries – especially small island states – are particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels and extreme weather caused by climate change. Thomas mentioned how in 2019 Hurricane Dorian hit her grandparents’ home and “the only thing left was one toilet.”

The trillion-dollar figure on the table represents about half of what the world spends annually on the military. Others say global fossil fuel subsidies could be redirected into climate finance; Estimates of this support range from $616 billion annually from the International Energy Agency to $7 trillion from the International Monetary Fund annually.

“When we need more for other things, including conflict, we seem to find it,” said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme. “Well, this is probably the biggest conflict of all.”

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A report by the United Nations Climate Finance Committee looked at the needs of 98 countries and estimated them at between $455 billion and $584 billion annually.

This money is not just direct government aid from one country to another. Some come from multinational development finance banks, such as the World Bank. There are also private investments that will be a big part. Developing countries are seeking relief from their $29 trillion global debt.

Andersen said at least a six-fold increase in investment is needed to be on track to limit future temperature rises to another two-tenths of a degree Celsius (0.4 degrees Fahrenheit) from now, the overarching target the world adopted in 2015.

Andersen calculates that with states’ current targets for reducing emissions, the difference between well-funded and current efforts translates into half a degree Celsius (0.9 degrees Fahrenheit) less global warming in the future. Experts say intensified efforts that could further reduce future temperature rises also incur more costs.

Who will pay is another sticking point. Climate talks for decades have used the 1992 criteria to classify two groups of countries, essentially rich and poor, and decided that rich countries like the United States would be the ones to help poorer countries financially. Financial circumstances have changed. Since then, China, the world’s most carbon-polluting country, has increased its per capita GDP more than thirty-fold. But neither China nor some rich oil countries are obligated to help with climate finance.

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Developed countries want countries that were not able to provide aid before, but can now, to be included in the next round of donors. Those countries don’t want those commitments, said E3G analyst Alden Mayer, a veteran of climate negotiations.

“Thinking about significantly expanding existing climate finance is too risky,” Mayer said.

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Associated Press correspondent Sibi Arasu contributed to this report from Bengaluru, India.

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Read more AP climate coverage at http://www.apnews.com/climate-and-environment

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