- The initial score was 67.8.
- It was previously 66.4
- Current conditions 61.3 vs. 60.9 in initial test (62.7 in previous test)
- Expectations 72.1 vs 72.1 in the preliminary test (68.8 in the previous test)
- Inflation over one year 2.8% vs. 2.9% initially
- Inflation over 5 years 3.0% vs. 3.0% initially
Comments from Survey Director Joan Hsu:
Consumer sentiment confirmed its reading at the start of the month; after declining for four months, sentiment rose 1.5 index points from July and is currently 36% above its all-time low from June 2022. Consumers’ short- and long-term economic expectations improved, with both figures reaching their highest levels since April 2024 and a particularly large 10% improvement in long-term expectations seen across age and income groups. Sentiment this month reflects a slight uptick in sentiment among independents, with Democrats and Republicans almost perfectly even. Democrats showed a large 10% increase in sentiment while Republicans recorded an equal-sized decline. These patterns stem from a major shift in election expectations this month with Harris emerging as the Democratic presidential nominee. In July, 51% of consumers expected Trump to win the election compared to 37% for Biden. In August, election expectations flipped; 36% expected Trump to win compared to 54% for Harris. Economic and electoral forecasts are subject to change as Election Day approaches.
Given the Fed’s focus on employment, here’s an interesting chart showing the expected change in the unemployment rate. The rate has ticked up slightly, but is still within the recent range.
This article was written by Adam Bouton on www.forexlive.com.
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