I don’t know if there’s a macro-data trade that has a hit-rate as strong as fading the FOMC Minutes. They’re stale by the time they’re released and there is never a single coherent message, so people can read them any way they like.
In any case, the US dollar sagged on the release of the FOMC Minutes this month, only to recover the dip within the hour. To be fair, the moves were around 10 pips each way — hardly even a trade — but it fit the long-standing pattern.
GBPUSD 1 min chart
The Minutes themselves were benign but there were some worries they would chart a more-hawkish path so the initial dollar selling came as that tail risk didn’t materialize.
In equity markets, there was some modest buying on the FOMC Minutes but that quickly reversed and stocks are near the lows of the day. The Nasdaq is down 1%.
I strongly suspect that’s more around the 10% implied move in NVDA following today’s earnings report than the Fed minutes.
