Non-Farm Payrolls vs. Consensus Expectations
- Previous was +339K (Revised to +K)
- 2 month net review K vs +93K previously
- Unemployment rate of 3.6% vs. 3.6% expected
- The previous unemployment rate was 3.7%.
- The participation rate is 62.6%, compared to the previous 62.6%
- The U6 underemployment rate is 6.9%, compared to the previous 6.7%
- Average hourly earnings +0.4% per month vs +0.3% expected
- Average hourly earnings +4.4% yoy vs +4.2% expected
- Average weekly hours vs. 34.3 expected hours
- Change in private salaries + 149 thousand vs. + 200 thousand expected
- Manufacturing payrolls change expected +7k vs 0k
- K-Family Survey vs -310k Ex
- Birth- and death-adjusted K vs. 231K+ prior
The 14 straight reads above consensus were finally broken, albeit narrowly. The market has been pricing in something higher than the consensus due to the strong ADP and the dollar’s decline in the aftermath.
